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Mesoscale Discussion 565
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 090746Z - 091045Z

   CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH.

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTHEAST
   INTO PART OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX BY
   DAYBREAK.  ISOLATED HAIL REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER/SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES.  A
   WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...SINCE 05Z...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
   DEVELOPING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS WEST TX IN AN AREA FROM
   NEAR MAF TO 55 SSE LBB TO 50 E BGS.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
   LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF STORMS HAD FORMED IN
   THIS REGION IN MARTIN/HOWARD COUNTIES AND STERLING TO NOLAN
   COUNTIES.  THIS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING 1/ WITHIN THE WESTERN
   EXTENT OF A MOIST AIR MASS LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE...WHICH
   EXTENDED FROM THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE SWWD TO THE EAST OF LBB
   TO WINK TX...AND 2/ NEAR A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO
   CONVECTION NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TX.  MEANWHILE...TRANSVERSE
   CLOUD BANDS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NM TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
   INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN NM/FAR WEST TX.  DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
   WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH. 
   ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITHIN THE NOSE OF A
   50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED INTO THE
   DEVELOPING WEST TX STORMS.  THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL SUPPORT
   ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND/OR NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
   REMAIN ELEVATED ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. 

   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /GIVEN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB
   WINDS/ IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. 
   MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SUGGEST HAIL /SOME EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER/ WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT.  THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO VEER THROUGH
   12Z...BECOMING PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING
   STORMS OR CLUSTERS TO BECOME LINEAR IN STRUCTURE...AS THEY MOVE INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK.  IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED HAIL
   THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
   12Z...THOUGH TIME OF DAY AND THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER MAY LIMIT
   STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33090137 33730057 34249979 34779839 34619670 33699655
               32369944 31950051 32090128 32440173 33090137 

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