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Mesoscale Discussion 565
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX TO PORTIONS OF AR/FAR
   NORTHERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091858Z - 092030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL RISK...A WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   TX/FAR EASTERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF AR/FAR NORTHERN LA.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS MERGERS HAVE LEAD TO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
   UPSCALE-GROWING QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
   OK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHEAST TX GENERALLY NEAR/WEST OF THE
   PARIS TX AREA AS OF 19Z. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED
   ALONG/NORTH OF PRIOR OUTFLOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TX AND NEAR AR/LA
   BORDER VICINITY...WITH GRADUAL WARMING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING TO
   THE NORTH INTO AR AMID MODEST CLOUD BREAK.

   AS STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR...ACCENTUATED BY STRONG TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVELS...WILL
   SUPPORT A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ASIDE
   FROM MORE PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR/SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES. DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY RISK...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ON
   THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EVOLVING COMPLEX OF STORMS.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33889532 34299479 35319473 36069279 35259208 33039341
               32899496 33889532 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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