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Mesoscale Discussion 566
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0335 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST KS/FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHEAST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

   VALID 090835Z - 091030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL /SOME REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
   DIAMETER/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...
   WITH THIS MARGINAL SEVERE RISK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
   MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  WW 153 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT
   09Z.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS OVER
   NORTH-CENTRAL KS REMAINED NEAR-SEVERE WITH HAIL ESTIMATED NEAR 1
   INCH PER MRMS MESH DATA.  DESPITE THESE FEW STRONGER STORMS...
   OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES WERE TENDING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF WW 153.  THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
   REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER FORCING
   ALOFT MOVES POLEWARD AWAY FROM KS WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
   THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
   TO DIMINISH WITH THE REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH THROUGH EAST
   KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES AND AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AS THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED CORES THROUGH 12Z. 
   WEAKENING OF THE LLJ BETWEEN 12-15Z WILL SUPPORT A FURTHER
   DIMINISHING TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES.

   ..PETERS.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   37519708 38079757 38619780 38889815 39189891 39469953
               40009891 40269745 40359648 40269590 39679564 39029563
               38609568 38149587 37539627 37399642 37519708 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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