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Mesoscale Discussion 566
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...

   VALID 112146Z - 112315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WITH LEAD SUPERCELLS ALONG WARM
   FRONT IN SE NEB...WITH LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LEAD SUPERCELL NOW ENTERING NW FILLMORE AND YORK
   COUNTIES IN SE NEB WILL LIKELY TRACK ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
   LIFTING NWD IN SW IA/SE NEB...SUCH THAT THE SUPERCELL WILL BEGIN TO
   ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
   N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM/MOISTEN. 
   THE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN LARGELY PARALLEL TO
   THE STORM MOTION...WITH THE SUPERCELL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A
   FAVORABLE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF
   LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY
   REACHING LINCOLN BY 23Z AND OMAHA/AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE S AROUND
   00Z.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE DEGREE OF STORM
   INTERACTIONS/INTERFERENCE WITH NEW STORM FORMATION AHEAD OF THE
   INITIAL SUPERCELL...AND OTHER STORMS NOT FAR BEHIND.

   ..THOMPSON.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   40939582 40779601 40639696 40629755 40629781 40859786
               41099761 41279705 41409660 41439615 41429591 41289578
               40939582 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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