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Mesoscale Discussion 567
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH CENTRAL
   TX...WESTERN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 091839Z - 091945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. 
   LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS TRANSLATING QUICKLY
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  WINDS HAVE RECENTLY GUSTED TO 70KT AT
   GDP SUPPORTING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN DRY LINE SURGING EAST OF THE
   I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS
   STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH VALUES NEAR
   DRY ADIABATIC.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE BREACHED AND
   TCU ARE NOW FORMING FROM CANADIAN COUNTY OK...SWD TO JACK COUNTY TX.

   LATEST THINKING IS SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AND
   SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD.  EARLIER MCS HAS LEFT A RAIN-COOLED
   DEMARCATION ACROSS SERN OK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
   FOR ENHANCED TORNADO RISK AS SUPERCELLS MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35149728 35629443 34809355 33319419 33289731 35149728 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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