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Mesoscale Discussion 567
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0509 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHERN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141...144...

   VALID 112209Z - 112315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   141...144...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ALONG WITH GUSTY
   WINDS...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL
   INTO NWRN INDIANA THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF LONG-LIVED MCS HAVE PROGRESSED INTO WI/IL
   WITH WEAKENING MCV OCCLUDING OVER JUNEAU COUNTY WI.  NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS AHEAD OF MCS
   CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG A CORRIDOR
   FROM EXTREME SERN IA...ENEWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI.  PRIMARY STORM MODE
   IS MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE AND LARGE HAIL IS THE GREATEST SEVERE
   THREAT.

   A FEW SUPERCELLS REMAIN ALONG SWRN FLANK OF THIS LARGER COMPLEX
   ACROSS SERN IA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY.  TORNADO THREAT
   APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
   THIS BOUNDARY.

   WITH TIME SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
   NRN INDIANA.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS
   THIS REGION AND CONVECTION MAY NOT MAINTAIN ITS ORGANIZATION...THUS
   THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACROSS THIS
   REGION.

   ..DARROW.. 05/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41029248 41868935 42778902 42798796 41368705 40638826
               40519188 41029248 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2014
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