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Mesoscale Discussion 568
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0146 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN
   NEB...AND FAR WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 091846Z - 091945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID LEVELS ACROSS SWRN KS WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS SINCE MOVED EWD ACROSS MO...DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
   CNRTL/ERN OK/KS INTO SWRN NEB AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AS
   OF 1830Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS
   BUILDING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN NWRN OK/S-CNTRL KS...AND CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAP FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
   WILL BE COMMON WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM.
   AN 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM OUN CONFIRMS RAP FORECAST IS
   REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY
   STRONG...SUFFICIENT VEERING/STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE VERY LARGE /IN
   EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/ GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
   INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION. WITH INSTABILITY WEAKENING WITH NWD
   EXTENT INTO SWRN NEB...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR N A SEVERE
   THREAT WILL DEVELOP. FINALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKER
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER S SUGGEST THE OVERALL
   TORNADO THREAT MAY BE RELATIVELY LOW.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
   DDC...

   LAT...LON   37069453 36499451 35589442 35569542 35419663 35309769
               35469833 37089846 39309843 40629791 40599597 40429517
               39119446 37069453 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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