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Mesoscale Discussion 568
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092152Z - 092315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DISCRETE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE INITIATING ALONG THE MERGED
   DRYLINE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
   DEGREE OF BUOYANCY IN THE WAKE OF THE DOWNSTREAM OUTFLOW-MODIFIED
   AIR MASS...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADIC SUPERCELL
   MAY DEVELOP.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE FROM HANSFORD TO
   COTTLE COUNTY TX. TSTM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER DONLEY COUNTY
   WITH ANOTHER SHOWER EVIDENT IN GRAY COUNTY. HOW UNSTABLE THE AIR
   MASS E OF THE DRYLINE IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE
   OVERTURNING EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE NWRN EXTENT OF
   MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINS FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE
   INTO SWRN OK. WITH CONTINUED ROBUST INSOLATION...IT APPEARS
   PLAUSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WOULD EXIST FOR SUSTAINING
   DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WOULD
   FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
   RISK...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN SOME
   ENLARGEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DUE TO PERSISTENT E/SELY
   NEAR-SURFACE WINDS.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36200139 36310132 36450099 36409995 35429946 34759932
               34509953 34379985 34170031 34580080 34790104 36200139 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2015
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