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Mesoscale Discussion 569
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NEB...SRN SD...FAR NWRN IA...AND
   FAR SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 091926Z - 092100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MAINLY AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH
   THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN BROADER LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH THE
   PLAINS...AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS NOTED OVER WRN/CNTRL
   NEB/SD THIS AFTERNOON PER RECENT WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
   ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN NEB...SERN SD...AND FAR
   NWRN IA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION IS
   LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE A WARM FRONT LOCATED FURTHER S ACROSS NEB/IA.
   WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MODEST DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   LATE AFTERNOON...MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA. WHILE THE WIND FIELD IS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
   HEIGHT ABOVE 1 KM PER KFSD AND KOAX VWPS...IT DOES STRENGTHEN TO
   40-45 KT THROUGH 8-9 KM. THIS SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR
   SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES TO POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING REDUCES THE SEVERE RISK.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42469818 42789903 43380039 44230036 44439935 44359774
               44009632 43659568 43099510 42279565 42049720 42469818 

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