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Mesoscale Discussion 570
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0570
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0552 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX...RED RIVER AREA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 150...151...

   VALID 092252Z - 100015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 150...151...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS AMIDST CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/NE ALONG LARGE-SCALE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

   DISCUSSION...22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX BORDER AREA WWD ALONG THE RED
   RIVER. THE MORE WELL-DEFINED PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY IS OVER THE
   ARKLATEX WHERE A SUPERCELL IS PRESENT IN BOWIE COUNTY TX. WITH THE
   WARMEST OF WARM SECTOR AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR UPPER 80S SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES OVER THE SABINE VALLEY...THIS STORM COULD POTENTIALLY
   HAVE A MORE PERSISTENT TORNADO RISK AS IT APPROACHES THE TEXARKANA
   AREA. FARTHER W...FWS VWP DATA CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE STRONGEST OF
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 0-1 KM VALUES AROUND 25
   KT. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY MESSY MODE MAY TEMPER THE LONGEVITY OF ANY
   INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELL...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34109919 34299884 34429836 34509754 34479706 34179590
               33909535 33709441 33829373 34169304 33969266 33559271
               33179303 32899353 32839409 32949478 33129565 33439698
               33689848 33799912 34109919 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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