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Mesoscale Discussion 571
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0513 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX TO WESTERN
   LA/SOUTHWEST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092213Z - 092345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY
   DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS
   OF NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TX...AND POSSIBLY FAR EAST/NORTHEAST TX AND
   NEIGHBORING NORTHWEST LA/SOUTHWEST AR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
   DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS. MORE IMMINENT SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION COULD PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A GENERAL INCREASE IN TOWERING CU HAS BEEN NOTED IN
   VICINITY OF THE NNE/SSW-EXTENDING DRYLINE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
   CENTRAL PARTS OF CENTRAL TX...WITH THE MOST DISCERNIBLE ATTEMPTS AT
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FRINGES OF
   THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AS OF 2145Z/445PM CDT. AN EARLIER
   /18Z/ OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH FEATURED SOME CAPPING
   BETWEEN 750-850 MB...WHILE NEAR-DRYLINE CONVERGENCE REMAINS MODEST
   PER LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA /WEAK
   CONVERGENCE THROUGH 2-3 KM AGL/. THIS CASTS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
   LIKELIHOOD/EXTENSIVENESS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THE
   VERY LEAST...A CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST IF/WHERE
   STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

   FARTHER EAST...ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF AN
   ABATING/EASTWARD-SHIFTING CLOUD SHIELD...A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE
   CORRIDOR OF GRADUALLY INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
   DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EAST/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA/SOUTHERN AR
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING AMID MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
   DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK
   ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STORMS
   INCREASE/INTENSIFY.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30959467 31069783 32299688 33079610 33159418 32819322
               31549374 30959467 

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Page last modified: May 09, 2016
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