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Mesoscale Discussion 574
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0638 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AR AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092338Z - 100115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY
   DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR AND POSSIBLY
   SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...A LINEARLY CLUSTERED BAND OF NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING
   STORMS HAVE SHOWN MODEST SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY
   SINCE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL AR. THIS IS
   LIKELY RELATED TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM VORT MAX AND
   INCREASING WARM ADVECTION NEAR/NORTH OF A EARLY-DAY-RAIN-INDUCED
   ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT ROUGHLY BISECTS AR /WARMER AND
   MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF/. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM
   BUOYANCY IS CURRENTLY WEAK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS EVOLVING BAND
   OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE/ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS
   AN MCS THIS EVENING...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS MAY
   TEND TO REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE RELATIVE
   COOLNESS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO MO...BUT A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT AS AIRMASS
   RECOVERY/LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...A TREND THAT IS
   SUBSTANTIATED BY THE RECENT 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LITTLE ROCK.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34949359 36229296 37349140 37618972 36098984 35399098
               34949359 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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