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Mesoscale Discussion 574
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100106Z - 100230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD SHOULD EXIST FOR 2-3 HOURS THIS EVENING. SPATIOTEMPORAL
   EXTENT OF THE RISK APPEARS MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THAT INITIATED OVER NE MEXICO RAPIDLY
   INTENSIFIED ALONG AND E OF THE RIO GRANDE IN MAVERICK COUNTY WITH
   BOTH LEFT/RIGHT-SPLITTING CELLS. ALONG THE EDGE OF THE THERMAL AXIS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MODIFIED
   00Z DRT RAOB SUGGESTS VERY LARGE BUOYANCY EXISTS AMIDST AN ELONGATED
   HODOGRAPH WITH 50-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A COUPLE
   HOURS OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS. BUT WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING...MLCIN SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY AND ACTIVITY
   SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED INFLOW WITH ERN EXTENT
   GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
   OVERALL RISK SHOULD BE WANING AFTER 03Z.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29200093 29430019 29339957 28959914 28469882 27959871
               27659883 27499926 27539972 28260033 29200093 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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