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Mesoscale Discussion 575
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN
   OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...156...

   VALID 100033Z - 100130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   154...156...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
   OF WWS 154 AND 156.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE
   ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

   DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WWS 154 AND 156.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS
   BEGUN THE PROCESS OF CONGEALING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
   NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.  AS THESE
   STORMS CONGEAL...LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING BASEBALL HAIL REPORTS FROM
   WASHINGTON COUNTY KANSAS/ AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED CELL
   THAT CAN ACQUIRE ROTATION.  AS THESE STORMS CONGEAL...THEY MAY BEGIN
   A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
   NEBRASKA/.

   FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EVIDENT NEAR
   THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...AND ANOTHER ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL
   PERSISTS ACROSS PAWNEE/OSAGE OKLAHOMA.  IN THIS REGION...BACKING OF
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS BENEATH STRONGER /30-50 KNOT/ WESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A
   SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.  LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS EXCEEDING 2
   INCHES IN DIAMETER...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. 
   PARTS OF THIS REGION HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO
   WATCH...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.

   ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEW
   DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
   GIVEN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG A DRYLINE IN THE REGION AND AN
   APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGIME.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   GID...

   LAT...LON   36739826 37069782 37439746 37789735 38499736 38999773
               39359810 39879812 40519774 41059738 41439696 41729654
               41999595 42069555 42099505 42009460 41809442 41469443
               40979459 40489493 39839526 38929530 38329512 37589507
               36969497 36629485 36319495 36069550 35939635 35959694
               36089757 36399815 36739826 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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