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Mesoscale Discussion 575
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0810 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100110Z - 100245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 149 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT
   FOR INCREASED SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THE THREAT APPEARS IT
   WILL EXTEND MUCH PAST THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME. HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TRACKING INTO CENTRAL KS.

   DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 149
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NOW...AN AERIAL EXTENSION BY WFO DDC
   AND GLD SHOULD CONTAIN THE THREAT. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A
   NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF THE THREAT BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
   APPEARS THAT IT WILL LAST MUCH BEYOND THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME. 

   THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL KS IS MODESTLY UNSTABLE...BUT WITH LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING...ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO
   REMAIN SO AS SBCIN INCREASES. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE WITH ANY STORM
   THAT INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BASED
   ON LATEST ICT AND DDC VWP AND THE DDC 00Z RAOB...ANY SURFACE BASED
   CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR PROFILES. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS NEAR
   -15C WILL ALSO FAVOR SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WHILE
   STORM EVOLUTION IS UNCLEAR...SOME MODELS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND TRACK E/NE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. IF ANY COLD
   POOL IS ABLE TO BE ESTABLISHED...STRONG WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40060039 40029962 39509917 37979856 37019851 37029922
               37079985 37380019 38390036 39740055 40060039 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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