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Mesoscale Discussion 577
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0938 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTION OF WRN TO CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 100238Z - 100445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH
   MIDNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THE RETREATING
   DRYLINE OVER THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY. LARGE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE MAY ALSO INCLUDE
   REPLACING PORTIONS OF EXTENDED WW 149 THAT EXPIRES AT 04Z.

   DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE RETREATING DRYLINE FROM
   BREWSTER COUNTY TO NEAR SJT AND ABI. A SURGE OF NWLY SURFACE WINDS
   HAS REACHED HOWARD TO PECOS COUNTY BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
   IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   PECOS COUNTY. WITH 40-KT LOW-LEVEL SELYS SAMPLED IN KDFX VWP
   DATA...CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/BIG
   COUNTRY/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE
   ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP CONVECTION BLOSSOMING THROUGH
   MIDNIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT
   ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER INITIATION.
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
   RAPID CLUSTERING MODE WITH UPDRAFTS LIKELY GETTING UNDERCUT BY
   COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW. THIS SHOULD TEND TO TEMPER THE OVERALL
   SEVERE RISK OVERNIGHT.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30640240 31210180 31800113 32090052 32519994 32599929
               32469857 32209811 31939831 31559900 30859979 30140128
               30070215 30270244 30640240 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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