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Mesoscale Discussion 578
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156...

   VALID 100306Z - 100400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 156
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL/SEVERE WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
   AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 156...

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IN EASTERN PARTS OF WW 156 HAS EVOLVED INTO
   LINEAR SEGMENTS WHILE GRADUALLY BEING UNDERCUT BY A
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL EMANATING FROM PREVIOUS UPSTREAM
   CONVECTION.  THIS UNDERCUTTING HAS TENDED TO DECREASE STORM
   INTENSITIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS WESTERN IOWA OVER THE PAST
   HOUR...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WITHIN
   THE PRE-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS EAST OF THIS CONVECTION SUGGEST A
   CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 

   FARTHER NORTHWEST...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN FAR
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH NEAR MADISON/CUMING COUNTIES IN
   NEBRASKA.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK IN THIS AREA...BUT STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ELSEWHERE IN WW 156...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
   NEBRASKA...OVERTURNING AND LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION HAS EFFECTIVELY
   ENDED THE SEVERE THREAT THERE.  PARTS OF WW 156 MAY BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE EARLY IN THIS AREA.

   ..COOK/COOK.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42049803 42269765 42439702 42509598 42569534 42539484
               42359449 42069433 41659429 41279428 40799439 40369453
               40139471 39959520 39929565 40079598 40429604 40789607
               41289623 41689659 41749707 41739775 41749816 41849835
               42039813 42049803 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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