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Mesoscale Discussion 579
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST MO/FAR NORTHWEST AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100337Z - 100500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
   SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD MOVE INTO
   SOUTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST AR THROUGH LATE EVENING.
   CURRENT THINKING IS THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING VORT
   MAX...FOCUSED JUST BEHIND AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY
   FAR NORTHWEST AR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED IN THE 00Z OBSERVED SPRINGFIELD MO
   SOUNDING WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED THIS EVENING /GENERALLY LOWER 60S F
   TEMPERATURES/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   37649454 38389419 37779293 36419326 35969443 37649454 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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