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Mesoscale Discussion 581
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0644 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX / SERN OK / SWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101144Z - 101345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
   A STRONG WIND GUST RISK MAY DEVELOP WITH THE QLCS AS IT MOVES INTO
   NERN TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OK/AR.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 1140Z SHOWS A QLCS FROM NEAR THE RED
   RIVER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TRAILING SWD TO 30 MI WNW ACT.  RECENT
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SAMPLED GUSTS IN THE 30-50 MPH RANGE
   /SUB-SEVERE/ ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS MAY STILL BE
   ACCOMPANYING THE MORE PRECIP-LADEN CORES OR MESOVORTICES.  SURFACE
   CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE QLCS ARE LOWER 70S TEMPS WITH NEAR 70 DEG F
   DEWPOINTS.  WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL
   TEND TO SLOW DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING AND THE
   PERCEIVED NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS LOW AT THIS
   TIME.  NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SHEAR/BUOYANCY FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   WILL LEND SOME TEMPERED POSSIBILITY FOR AN UPTICK IN A WIND GUST
   THREAT.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
   MORNING HOURS.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33519726 34459562 34599456 34479381 33839382 32629529
               32019678 33519726 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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