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Mesoscale Discussion 581
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0142 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ARKANSAS...WRN TENNESSEE...NW MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...158...

   VALID 100642Z - 100815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157...158...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONTINUING LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS /STRONGEST OF
   WHICH HAVE BEEN MEASURED APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS/ ARE EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE NEED FOR AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED WITHIN A 40 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
   MEAN FLOW FIELD...LINGERING SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN
   MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  LIGHTNING TRENDS AND MRMS
   CAPPI DATA HAVE INDICATED A DISTINCT WEAKENING TREND TO THE STRONGER
   CONVECTION... AND LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH OF ONGOING
   ACTIVITY IS STILL ROOTED WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  BUT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ROOTED WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONGLOMERATE
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY 08-09Z...IF NOT
   BEFORE...AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST OF JACKSON TN/OXFORD AND
   GREENWOOD MS LINE.

   ..KERR.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33729198 33759155 34249084 34539053 34989009 35419000
               35859005 36068996 36468746 34668939 33199076 32789253
               33729198 

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