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Mesoscale Discussion 582
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0856 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...FAR NERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101356Z - 101600Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE HAS BUILT NNEWD FROM N TX DURING THE PAST
   SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN ORGANIZED LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM
   CONFIGURATION NOW DEPICTED BY AREA RADARS. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
   LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR TULSA TO NEAR HUGO...AND WILL CONTINUE
   SPREADING EWD INTO MARGINAL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY -- STRONGEST S OF
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVE LINE. WHILE MUCH
   OF THE AREA -- ESPECIALLY N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- HAS NOT
   EXPERIENCED SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...AND ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTIVE PROCESSING HAS LIMITED PBL INSTABILITY...ESTABLISHED COLD
   POOL CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   FURTHERMORE...THE SRX VWP SAMPLES AROUND 50 KT OF FLOW AT 3 KM
   AGL...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR...MAINTAINED STRONG CONVECTION...AND DMGG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
   A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   33919530 35679580 36549567 36529487 36199432 35119407
               33889431 33919530 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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