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Mesoscale Discussion 582
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0701 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MISSOURI INTO SRN ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101201Z - 101345Z

   CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM...OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
   WITH CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BETWEEN
   CAPE GIRARDEAU AND ST. LOUIS.  IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A WATCH WILL
   BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDDAY.

   DISCUSSION...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR NEAR AN ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SPEED
   MAXIMUM...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
   NOW APPROACHING THE FARMINGTON MO AREA.  ADDITIONAL NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO ONGOING AROUND AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
   FARMINGTON...LIKELY SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  

   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
   GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TO THE
   NORTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU...TOWARD THE MOUNT VERNON IL AREA THROUGH
   13-15Z.  AS IT DOES...POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER
   INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LOW.

   STORMS MAY BE MOSTLY ELEVATED ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR- SURFACE
   LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR EVEN THE MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS RATHER
   MODEST...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG.  THERE APPEARS LITTLE
   POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.  AND MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
   WEAKENING OF THE SUPPORTING 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET
   THROUGH MID MORNING.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37529101 38109085 38549034 38598951 38468842 38088809
               37638828 37388926 37449005 37529101 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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