Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 583
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 583 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 121829Z - 122000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS OF LAKE MI ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A RESULTANT
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS SRN LWR MI. A WW IS LIKELY
   TO COVER THIS SVR THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSTMS MOVING OVER LK MI
   HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM A MORE ELY STORM MOTION TO SELY AS THE
   AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WHILE
   CINH REMAINS OVER THE AIRMASS N AND E. 

   SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM JUST N OF MKG ESEWD TO
   JUST N OF DET. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   MID 60S. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STEEP BUT THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SUPPORTING
   MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. GRR VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 41 KT. AS
   SUCH...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH SOME
   INCREASED ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE. LINEAR MODE IS FAVORED WITH A
   PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF SVR HAIL.
   TORNADO THREAT IS LOW BUT BACKED WINDS ALONG AND JUST N OF THE WARM
   FRONT MAY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENOUGH FOR A TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43308640 43478587 43078364 42398363 41828391 41748476
               41768611 41808671 43308640 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 12, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities