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Mesoscale Discussion 583
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101449Z - 101715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING. THE
   ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS
   SW/WSW OF THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE RED
   RIVER VICINITY OVER FAR NERN TX/FAR SERN OK. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS S OF THE DFW METROPLEX WW TO NEAR ABILENE WHERE IT
   INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT IS BEING OVERTAKEN BY A PACIFIC FRONT.
   WITH THE BULK OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LIFTING NNEWD AWAY FROM
   N-CNTRL TX...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY OF ADVANCING
   NWD WITH TIME...AS SFC OBS AND FWS VWP DEPICT MODERATE SLY COMPONENT
   IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL ACROSS N-CNTRL TX.

   MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
   PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO NEAR THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY
   MOIST...WITH A STEADY FEED OF 15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO SAMPLED
   BY THE FWD...CRP...AND DRT VWPS. VIS IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES AREAS
   OF FILTERED SUNSHINE SUPPORTING DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
   CAPPING IN PLACE...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
   LAPSE RATES SURMOUNTING THE RICH MOISTURE SUPPORTING MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...AND WITH MODEST DIURNAL HEATING...AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
   THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF BECOMING-SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS
   EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   THIS WILL OCCUR WHILE LARGER-SCALE DCVA GLANCES THE AREA.

   THE PRESENCE OF 40-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. ALSO...WITH 40-55 KT OF
   2-3-KM-AGL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY ENHANCED
   NEAR THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PROGRESS NWD WITH TIME
   INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR RICHER STREAMWISE
   VORTICITY WITH RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS AND A SOURCE OF GREATER
   BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29850104 32229922 32829821 33129704 33359574 33289464
               33059433 32129533 31109655 29829858 29850104 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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