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Mesoscale Discussion 584
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MO...FAR NE OK...FAR NW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121912Z - 122115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EWD WITH SOME THREAT FOR
   SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL SVR THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
   TOO LOW TO WARRANT A WW BUT TRENDS FOR INCREASED
   ORGANIZATION/UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT 18Z SGF SOUNDING SAMPLED A MOIST AND MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD.
   RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A REMANENT
   EML AND PREVIOUS CONVECTION WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO REMAIN BELOW 2000 J PER KG. THIS REGION IS ALSO
   ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE BETTER SHEAR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
   OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. 

   MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND NELY ORIENTATION OF THE BULK SHEAR
   VECTOR IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRIMARILY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME SMALL
   HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. GREATEST SVR THREAT WILL RESULT FROM
   CELL MERGERS WHEN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE INTERSECTS ANY ACTIVITY
   AHEAD OF IT. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LOW SVR THREAT A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR INCREASED ORGANIZATION.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   38589429 39449371 39569274 39319190 38909152 38289159
               36139331 36249498 38589429 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2014
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