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Mesoscale Discussion 584
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND FAR SERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101856Z - 102100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL
   TX BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   SOME OF THE LARGE HAIL MAY BE GREATER THAN TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS
   NEBULOUS ACROSS THE MCD REGION...RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A WEAK PERTURBATION WITHIN SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT THAT IS APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF 1845Z.
   CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE NRN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS IN
   MEXICO POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. 1 MINUTE VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 14 SHOWS CU HAS RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX TO THE E OF A SFC DRYLINE. STRONG
   INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
   TO WARM INTO THE 90S IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT OVERLY STRONG PER RAP
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM DRT...STRENGTHENING
   WINDS OF 45-50 KT GENERALLY ABOVE 6 KM SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   MULTICELL/OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
   MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INITIATE BY 20-21Z AS THE CAP ERODES. THE VERY FAVORABLE
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE PRODUCTION
   OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER CORES.
   GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION...LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO
   THREAT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NON-ZERO.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29690162 31470088 32679868 33639733 33979655 33939575
               33569535 32929553 31439713 29579964 29220090 29690162 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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