MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 302051Z - 302215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
   W-CNTRL TX DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WW IS UNLIKELY.
   
   DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 90S OVER W-CNTRL TX...WHICH IS
   YIELDING STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH DEWPOINTS
   HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE AND RAP
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPE VALUES STILL RESIDE FROM 500-1000
   J/KG DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A
   RESULT...A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPANDING EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL
   TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
   BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES...DRY MICROBURSTS PRODUCING ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GARNER/HART.. 04/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   33230243 34390209 34700149 34430076 33660020 32730032
               32210153 32340259 33230243