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Mesoscale Discussion 584
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD...FAR SWRN
   MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101524Z - 101800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING INTO
   THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES. THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN SERN SD AT THE
   LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER DCVA PRECEDING A COMPACT MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
   THAT WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT AS ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. A RELATED SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED N OF ONL...WHICH
   WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO A ZONE OF MODEST PRESSURE FALLS.
   A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...WITH A WARM FRONT
   ARCING EWD/SEWD FROM THE CYCLONE INTO CNTRL/SRN IA. WITHIN THIS
   REGIME OF STRONG/COMPACT DEEP ASCENT...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   NWD WHILE THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD/NEWD...YIELDING A SECTOR OF UPPER
   50S/LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS TRACKING NEWD/NEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THINNING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ARE ENCOURAGING DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING ACROSS
   THIS AREA...YIELDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY. DEEP SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH OAX
   AND FSD VWPS SAMPLING 35 KT SLYS IN THE 2-3-KM LAYER AGL...LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES -- ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT WHERE BACKED/ESELY SFC WINDS INCREASE STREAMWISE VORTICITY AND
   NEAR THE SFC CYCLONE CENTER WHERE BACKGROUND VERTICAL VORTICITY IS
   STRONGEST.

   THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK MAY BE RELATIVELY MORE CONFINED IN
   THE SHORT-TERM...AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST
   DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   44079715 43709489 42919438 41659469 41019594 41219694
               42299777 43429866 44079715 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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