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Mesoscale Discussion 585
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN ND...ERN SD...FAR NWRN IA...AND
   NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101942Z - 102115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
   PLAINS FROM A LOW OVER ERN MT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN N-CNTRL
   NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG
   THE FRONT ACROSS THE MCD AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED
   AS SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...DIURNAL
   HEATING HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
   MID 70S. WITH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION...MLCAPE OF 250-1000 J/KG ESTIMATED BY RAP MESOANALYSIS IS
   REASONABLE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
   SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN ND/ERN SD
   WHERE SFC WINDS ARE BACKED TO SELY...ALTHOUGH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. THIS OVERALL MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS
   OF DIURNAL HEATING.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...

   LAT...LON   44569933 46299992 46719986 46709823 46259782 44549670
               42639626 41399677 41419927 41939966 43289932 44569933 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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