MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHWEST MO
   AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 302101Z - 302300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP/INCREASE BY
   EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO
   EXTREME NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. A WATCH DOES
   NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...ALTHOUGH ONE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION /ESPECIALLY SLIGHT RISK AREA/ THIS EVENING.
   SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
   
   DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   REGION AT MID-AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
   NEB INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IA. REGION APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODEST/NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT AT THIS TIME...WITH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PREVALENT
   ATOP A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /50S TO NEAR 60F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS/ WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN MODERATE MASS CONVERGENCE
   AND STRONG HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT /MIDDLE 80S F IN SOME
   AREAS/...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED NEAR-SURFACE
   BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS SUCH AS FAR
   NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. BUT GIVEN THE
   NATURE OF WARM SECTOR CAPPING AND FORCING IN RELATION TO THE FRONT
   /FOCUSED NORTH/...OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO
   NOCTURNALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
   FRONTAL ZONE. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR IN
   VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   
   ..GUYER/HART.. 04/30/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   39489856 40019780 41889416 41389343 40949392 39379696
               39069839 39489856