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Mesoscale Discussion 585
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101600Z - 101830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM NERN OK WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND POTENTIALLY
   SUPPORT LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE
   ACCOMPANYING AN MCS OVER FAR ERN OK/KS IS DEVELOPING AND WILL SPREAD
   ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT AS RICH AS IT IS TO THE
   S...WITH SFC OBS INDICATING LOWER/MIDDLE 60S IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...SFC HEATING THROUGH A RELATIVELY THIN
   CIRRUS SHIELD RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS ALLOWING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN. AND...GIVEN AN MCS-ESTABLISHED
   MODEST COLD POOL CHARACTERIZED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 1-3
   MB...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS STORMS
   MOVE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. SUCH RISK WOULD BE ENCOURAGED BY AROUND
   30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE SGF VWP...WITH 30-40 KT OF
   FLOW AROUND 1 KM AGL FACILITATING CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.
   HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST BUOYANCY WILL BE IN PLACE...WHICH COULD
   MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   36839436 37869460 38739405 39029230 38359115 37319097
               36919137 36709263 36839436 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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