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Mesoscale Discussion 586
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0321 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE IA...FAR NW IL...FAR NE MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150...

   VALID 122021Z - 122115Z

   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED.

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WW 150 AS TSTMS
   TRACK EWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. UPSCALE GROWTH MAY
   RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS. SVR HAIL ALSO REMAINS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS S-CNTRL IA/N-CNTRL MO IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF SVR HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J PER KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   OF 35-45 KT...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. 

   RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CELL MOVING THROUGH MARION AND MONROE
   COUNTIES HAS EXHIBITED DEVIANT RIGHT MOTION WITH NUMEROUS LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED CELL AHEAD OF IT. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST UPSCALE GROWTH MAY
   BE UNDERWAY WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM
   JUST W OF OTM /S-CNTRL IA/ TO MLI /CNTRL IA-IL BORDER/. SOME SVR
   HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORM ORGANIZATION AND INSTABILITY BOTH
   INCREASE.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39719332 42659235 42648982 39739085 39719332 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2014
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