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Mesoscale Discussion 586
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN KY...NWRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102008Z - 102115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF
   WESTERN KY.  UPGRADE TO A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY-DAY MCS HAS PROGRESSED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE SRN OH
   VALLEY REGION.  TRAILING THIS LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS...ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN SEEMINGLY WEAKER FORCED ENVIRONMENT. 
   EVEN SO...STRONG BULK SHEAR AND MODEST BUOYANCY HAVE INCREASED THE
   LIKELIHOOD FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  OVER THE LAST HOUR...ONE
   TORNADIC STORM HAS EVOLVED OVER WRN KY...GRAVES COUNTY.  ADDITIONAL
   SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MATURE WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY.  IF ADDITIONAL
   SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS THIS REGION AN UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH MAY
   BE REQUIRED.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37348709 37038637 36248678 36448943 37278943 37348709 

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