MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1107 AM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA/FL KEYS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 011607Z - 011800Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTY WINDS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA AND FL KEYS VICINITY
   AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND/GENERALLY WEST TO EAST
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   DISCUSSION...PERHAPS AIDED BY AN MCV...A WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS
   OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FL AT MIDDAY...EXTENDING IN A
   NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION ROUGHLY 35-50 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE
   SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA AS OF 1545Z. WHILE A MODEST ACCELERATION
   COULD OCCUR...A FORWARD MOTION OF 25-30 KT WILL GENERALLY BE
   MAINTAINED FOR THE QUASI-LINEAR MCS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY
   WEAK LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PER WSR-88D VWP DATA/12Z OBSERVED
   SOUNDINGS...WITH A MEAN 0-6 KM WIND OF 10-15 KT OR LESS. THIS IS IN
   ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   AHEAD OF THE MCS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FL
   PENINSULA WHERE A BIT MORE CONSEQUENTIAL INSOLATION/HEATING IS
   OCCURRING ON THE FRINGE OF THE HIGHER CLOUD CANOPY. MODIFICATIONS TO
   THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM MIAMI FOR LOWER 80S F SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE IF ANY
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN
   ALL...WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE MCS WILL REMAIN MODEST...SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY
   WITH ANY EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..GUYER/HART.. 05/01/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   26488258 27038233 27248129 26917986 24938040 24498185
               25148180 26018206 26488258