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Mesoscale Discussion 587
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0344 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...

   VALID 122044Z - 122145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS SRN LWR MI.
   MAIN THREATS WILL BE SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A
   NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT EXISTS NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR AND VORTICITY ARE ENHANCED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FROM MKG SEWD TO
   JUST N OF TTF. TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN LIVINGSTON AND
   WASHTENAW COUNTIES HAS SHOWN TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND VORTICITY ALONG IT CONTRIBUTE TO A
   LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT. THIS LOCALIZED THREAT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
   WILL PERSIST AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
   MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE BOUNDARY. 

   UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
   INCREASE IN DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION ACROSS S-CNTRL LWR MI
   AS FORWARD-PROPAGATION INCREASES AS A RESULT OF CELL INTERACTIONS.

   ..MOSIER.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42368635 43798634 43098313 41628313 42368635 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2014
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