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Mesoscale Discussion 587
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NEB...FAR SRN IA...NRN MO...FAR
   NERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 101652Z - 101915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE
   LOWER MO VALLEY AND VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE
   THAT THIS MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE NRN EXTENT OF A LARGER MCS
   CROSSING PARTS OF THE OZARKS WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
   MO VALLEY AND VICINITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS IS
   STUNTING DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT...THOUGH INSOLATION IS
   SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL MO AND S-CNTRL IA
   WHERE CIRRUS IS THINNER. AND...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   60S...DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE RISK FOR STORM
   INTENSIFICATION AS CONVECTION SPREADS NWD/NNEWD. TWX AND EAX VWPS
   SAMPLE MERIDIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP SHEAR
   CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   GUSTS. SOME TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT GIVEN MODEST
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
   CONVECTION UPSTREAM EXHIBITING SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
   CHARACTERISTICS...AND WITH MODEST BUOYANCY...THE OVERALL COVERAGE
   AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SVR RISK MAY BE LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41079435 40279285 39669219 39139320 39819524 40829668
               41079435 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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