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Mesoscale Discussion 587
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...NWRN KS...AND SRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102018Z - 102215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY POSE
   MAINLY A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   MAY ALSO OCCUR. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 20Z...A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FRONT
   RANGE OF CO EWD INTO W-CNTRL KS...AND NEWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB. CU
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO INTO NWRN KS HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
   AGITATION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
   ERN MT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AS TEMPERATURES
   HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT...WEAK
   INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS.
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 40-50 KT PER RAP MESOANALYSIS WILL
   OVERLIE THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING
   SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AS THEY LIKELY FORM INTO CLUSTERS WITH TIME.
   A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT SHOULD
   ENCOURAGE STRONG CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
   SUGGESTS DCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD
   AREA. WHILE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN
   THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39010451 39690440 39660201 40180055 41129953 41129858
               40069844 39149910 38290062 38320185 38420284 39010451 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2016
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