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Mesoscale Discussion 588
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151...

   VALID 122305Z - 130000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 151
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...GREATEST RISK OF STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL HAS SHIFTED INTO
   SERN LOWER MI.

   DISCUSSION...LONGER-LIVED WEAK MCV HAS TRANSLATED ACROSS LOWER MI
   AND CURRENTLY RESIDES NEAR OSC.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY...LOOSELY
   AFFILIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...EXTENDS ACROSS SERN LOWER MI...EWD
   OVER WRN PARTS OF LAKE ERIE.  THIS IS CORRELATED WELL WITH STRONGEST
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITHIN INFLOW REGION.  WHILE NEW CONVECTION
   MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS SERN LOWER MI...IT APPEARS THE
   GREATEST RISK MAY SHIFT OVER WRN LAKE ERIE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AT
   THIS TIME A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR NRN OH.

   UPSTREAM...MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER WI SHOULD PROGRESS
   ACROSS SRN LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
   HOW THESE STORMS WILL REACT TO COLD LAKE WATER AND WHETHER THEY WILL
   MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH WRN PARTS OF WW151.  LARGE
   HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH STORMS OVER LOWER MI.

   ..DARROW.. 05/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43788637 43098315 41658313 42348637 43788637 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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