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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN/NRN MO...SRN/ERN IA...SWRN
WI...EXTREME NWRN IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...
VALID 262314Z - 270015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.
MULTI-MODAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EVOLVING ACROSS TORNADO WATCH
194. AT 23Z...A BOW ECHO/LEWP WAS MOVING E TOWARD CNTRL/SRN
IA...TRAILING SWD INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS. COLD POOL BEHIND THE
LINEAR MCS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB MESO HIGH LOCATED INVOF OF
FNB. AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM CNTRL INTO NERN/ERN IA...STORMS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE DISCRETE. ONE STORM MOVING FROM LINN COUNTY IA INTO
DUBUQUE COUNTY HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADOES NEAR A NWD RETREATING
WARM FRONT. THAT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY RAPID
DESTABILIZATION AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE THERMAL BOUNDARY/. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH NRN
IL AND SRN WI DURING THE EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SVR WEATHER THREAT. FARTHER W-SW OVER SRN IA INTO NRN MO
AND ERN KS...THE TREND TOWARD LINEAR MCS/STRENGTHENING COLD POOL
SUGGESTS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS HAS DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...LOW LVL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...AND TORNADO
THREAT MAY EXIST WITH EMBEDDED MESO VORTICES WITHIN LEADING EDGE OF
BOWING STRUCTURES...AS WELL AS WITH STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE
LINE.
..GARNER.. 04/26/2009
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ICT...
LAT...LON 38059746 43229275 43178957 38059459 38059746
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