MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR SOUTHWEST OK...AND NORTHWEST INTO
   CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146...
   
   VALID 020047Z - 020215Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN SVR WEATHER THREATS
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AS STORMS MOVE/REDEVELOP
   SWD INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY TOWARD KABI.  A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS
   IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF KSJT TO SERN
   CROCKETT/SUTTON COUNTIES...AND STORMS FORMING NWD BETWEEN KSJT-KABI
   WHERE A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING OBSERVATIONAL DATA /VISIBLE SATELLITE...
   RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ SHOWED A LEAD COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE NRN CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST TX
   THROUGH THE WRN EXTENT OF TX BIG COUNTRY /20 W KABI TO 30 W KSJT/. 
   FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE MERGERS WITH THE LEAD
   COLD FRONT WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 146 FROM S OF
   KABI TO KSJT.  MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY...SINCE AT LEAST
   20Z...SHOWED A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGING SWD WITH THE SRN EXTENT
   OF THE NORTHWEST TX STORMS APPEARING TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
   INTERSECTION OF THE TWO COLD FRONTS.  NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   LIKELY ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY COLD
   FRONT OVERTAKES THE LEAD COLD FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY WIND
   MAINTAINING AN INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J
   PER KG/.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ACROSS WW 146.
   
   22Z AND 23Z HRRR SUGGEST THE STORMS ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 146
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO KSJT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/02/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32939999 33709909 34189869 34129816 33819803 32849799
               32119786 31629792 31119798 30289817 29719859 29569899
               29560006 29100017 29070065 29520131 29730177 30380173
               30720168 31110125 31510110 32939999