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Mesoscale Discussion 589
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

   VALID 101942Z - 102145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 155.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ARCS FROM E
   OF WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX NEWD TO THE ARKLATEX. THE
   BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED HIGH THETA-E AIR TO ITS S -- CHARACTERIZED
   BY UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500
   J PER KG -- WILL ADVANCE NWD AS SUGGESTED BY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
   1.0-2.5 MB PER 2 HOURS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RELATIVELY
   BACKED/SSELY-SLY SFC WINDS RELATIVE TO 50-60 KT OF MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
   IS SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIAL DEEP SHEAR/STREAMWISE VORTICITY. THIS WILL
   SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK WITH ONGOING CONVECTION N OF THE DFW
   METROPLEX TOWARD DENTON AND EWD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/NERN TX IN
   THE SHORT-TERM. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   OTHER CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING NEAR MILLS COUNTY SWD TO SAN SABA
   COUNTY...AND MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS
   ACTIVITY AND SPREAD NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX. LARGE
   HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND SOME TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
   ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM.

   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT E OF A DRYLINE ANALYZED FROM S OF ABILENE TO W OF DEL RIO.
   THIS WOULD BE IN A MOIST/LIMITED-CAPPING ENVIRONMENT WITH WIND
   PROFILES REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR HAZARDS
   POSSIBLE.

   ..COHEN.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29700134 33819696 33819364 29709817 29700134 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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