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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF FAR SOUTHWEST OK...AND NORTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146...
VALID 020047Z - 020215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN SVR WEATHER THREATS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AS STORMS MOVE/REDEVELOP
SWD INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY TOWARD KABI. A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS
IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF KSJT TO SERN
CROCKETT/SUTTON COUNTIES...AND STORMS FORMING NWD BETWEEN KSJT-KABI
WHERE A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING OBSERVATIONAL DATA /VISIBLE SATELLITE...
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/ SHOWED A LEAD COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE NRN CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTHWEST TX
THROUGH THE WRN EXTENT OF TX BIG COUNTRY /20 W KABI TO 30 W KSJT/.
FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE MERGERS WITH THE LEAD
COLD FRONT WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF WW 146 FROM S OF
KABI TO KSJT. MEANWHILE...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY...SINCE AT LEAST
20Z...SHOWED A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGING SWD WITH THE SRN EXTENT
OF THE NORTHWEST TX STORMS APPEARING TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE TWO COLD FRONTS. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT OVERTAKES THE LEAD COLD FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY WIND
MAINTAINING AN INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2500 J
PER KG/. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS WW 146.
22Z AND 23Z HRRR SUGGEST THE STORMS ACROSS THE NRN PART OF WW 146
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND MAY
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO KSJT.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32939999 33709909 34189869 34129816 33819803 32849799
32119786 31629792 31119798 30289817 29719859 29569899
29560006 29100017 29070065 29520131 29730177 30380173
30720168 31110125 31510110 32939999
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