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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270036Z - 270130Z
A BRIEF SVR WEATHER THREAT MAY EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO OVER
E CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI. A WW IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.
A SURFACE LOW HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER SRN MN DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HRS...AND IS LIFTING N TOWARD E CNTRL MN. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW...WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS LOCATED ALONG AND S
OF THE FRONT. MODIFIED RUC AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE AIRMASS ALONG/S OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BRIEFLY YIELD SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CINH. STORMS FORMING IN
THIS REGION WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY
STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION /IF A SURFACE BASED STORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP/. DUE
TO WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WOULD BE A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST. DUE TO THE
MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED.
..GARNER.. 04/27/2009
ATTN...WFO...MPX...
LAT...LON 45579277 45009246 44389254 44259286 44159431 44559487
45519472 45729352 45579277
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