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Mesoscale Discussion 590
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0614 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102314Z - 110045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSING A HAIL THREAT IN THE
   DISCUSSION AREA ATTM.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE MATURED
   AND POSE PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   ALSO POSSIBLE.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY /AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
   MUCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT
   WEAK DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
   CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
   FRONT WILL SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING.  AT THIS
   TIME...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION...AND ANY
   INCREASE WOULD REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.  TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39810035 40200021 40689979 41369919 42019853 42269815
               42369770 42169702 41819670 41369670 40819695 40229735
               39869776 39519829 39289893 39269969 39300009 39400039
               39510046 39810035 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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