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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...NWRN/NRN MO...SRN/ERN IA...SWRN
WI...EXTREME NWRN IL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...
VALID 270121Z - 270215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.
CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 194 HAS EVOLVED TOWARD A BOWING
LEWP STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM NERN IA SW INTO NWRN MO AND NERN KS.
SVR/NEAR SVR WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE IA SEGMENT OF
THE LEWP...AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT SIMILAR POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR BOWS OVER NW MO/NERN KS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
THREAT...VERY STRONG LOW LVL SHEAR /0-1 KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 40 KT/ EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 30-50
KT S-SWLY LLJ. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING EDGE MESO VORTICES EXISTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WEATHER THREAT...GUST FRONT ORIENTATION IS
BECOMING ALIGNED PARALLEL TO MEAN UPR LVL FLOW...AND SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSE LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP
OVER ERN KS INTO NRN MO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
TRAINING STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN/SRN IA INTO ERN KS GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT TIME HRS. ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED MESOSCALE FORCING
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT/LLJ INTERSECTION OVER SWRN WI.
NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD
INTO WI...LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS WELL.
..GARNER.. 04/27/2009
ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ICT...
LAT...LON 38059747 40209557 40889448 43199240 43188960 38059458
38059747
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