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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146...
VALID 020344Z - 020445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A PORTION OF
CENTRAL TX FROM NRN MENARD TO ERN RUNNELS COUNTIES AND EAST TO BROWN
TO LAMPASAS COUNTIES THROUGH 0430-05Z...THOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING. FARTHER S...CLOUD TOP
WARMING/WEAKENING STORMS SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.
DISCUSSION...AT 0315Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SWD MOVING
STORMS IN COLEMAN/BROWN COUNTIES APPROACHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
FROM NRN MENARD TO SRN COLEMAN COUNTIES. THE INCREASE IN GROUND
CLUTTER ON SURROUNDING TEXAS RADARS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DECOUPLING AND SURFACE BASED INHIBITION IS INCREASING. TRENDS IN
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO INDICATED THE INCREASE IN INHIBITION. THESE
UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING
STORM MERGERS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY AND
THE LACK OF ESELY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD FURTHER
DIMINISH THROUGH 05Z. THE RECENT HRRR OUTPUT HAS CONTINUED TO
SUGGEST SOME EWD MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR FURTHER STORM GROWTH...A NEW WW
IS UNLIKELY.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2013
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30720091 31739963 31939912 31709871 31109821 30449825
29979887 29719956 29680031 30050144 30720091
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