MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0591
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 PM CDT WED MAY 01 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146...
   
   VALID 020344Z - 020445Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A PORTION OF
   CENTRAL TX FROM NRN MENARD TO ERN RUNNELS COUNTIES AND EAST TO BROWN
   TO LAMPASAS COUNTIES THROUGH 0430-05Z...THOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING.  FARTHER S...CLOUD TOP
   WARMING/WEAKENING STORMS SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.
   
   DISCUSSION...AT 0315Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SWD MOVING
   STORMS IN COLEMAN/BROWN COUNTIES APPROACHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
   FROM NRN MENARD TO SRN COLEMAN COUNTIES. THE INCREASE IN GROUND
   CLUTTER ON SURROUNDING TEXAS RADARS SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
   DECOUPLING AND SURFACE BASED INHIBITION IS INCREASING. TRENDS IN
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO INDICATED THE INCREASE IN INHIBITION.  THESE
   UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT...ONGOING
   STORM MERGERS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNING ANY REMAINING INSTABILITY AND
   THE LACK OF ESELY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD FURTHER
   DIMINISH THROUGH 05Z.  THE RECENT HRRR OUTPUT HAS CONTINUED TO
   SUGGEST SOME EWD MOVEMENT OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN THE
   AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR FURTHER STORM GROWTH...A NEW WW
   IS UNLIKELY.
   
   ..PETERS.. 05/02/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   LAT...LON   30720091 31739963 31939912 31709871 31109821 30449825
               29979887 29719956 29680031 30050144 30720091