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Mesoscale Discussion 592
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VA/EXTREME NORTHERN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102341Z - 110115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST
   MID-EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. THE OVERALL RISK IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOCALIZED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
   DEVELOPED/INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
   NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE LYNCHBURG AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF SOUTH
   BOSTON/NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AS OF 2315Z/715 PM EDT. THESE STORMS ARE
   NEAR THE WEDGE-RELATED FRONT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS WNW/ESE ACROSS
   FAR SOUTHERN VA. AT LEAST A WEAK SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT...WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS...AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...AND AN AMPLE VEERING OF WINDS
   WIND HEIGHT /ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS/.
   ACCORDINGLY...PERIODIC BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH AT
   LEAST MID-EVENING.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37468001 37287766 36647722 36437760 36427822 37038056
               37468001 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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