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Mesoscale Discussion 592
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OKLAHOMA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...

   VALID 102022Z - 102115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES ACROSS WW 157.

   DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS
   CNTRL OK...APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA CITY AND PONCA CITY AREAS FROM
   THE W. THE 17Z LMN SOUNDING SAMPLED 8 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ABOVE
   MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SUPPORTING
   CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...UPDRAFTS
   HAVE STRUGGLED TO BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PERHAPS AS
   WIDESPREAD HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PERIPHERAL TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION
   FROM N TX TO THE OZARKS/MO AND THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVELY
   PROCESSED AIR ARE STUNTING SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. ALSO...THE
   UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE DETRIMENTAL TO THE
   SUPPORT OF UPDRAFT MATURATION. REGARDLESS...THE TLX VWP SAMPLES
   SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
   CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. CONVECTION DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM N-CNTRL TX
   INTO S-CNTRL OK -- DISPLACED E OF THE SFC BOUNDARY -- MAY EXPERIENCE
   THE GREATEST RISK OF BECOMING SVR.

   ..COHEN.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34349816 35639747 36769660 36719543 35619511 34739520
               34259553 34059607 33989749 34349816 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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