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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CDT THU MAY 02 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN / NWRN WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 021100Z - 021500Z
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED SNOWFALL RATES AROUND
1 INCH PER HOUR PROBABLE THROUGH 15 UTC.
DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES HAS MOVED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LITTLE EWD MOVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MID MORNING. THE NLDN HAS DETECTED SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NERN IA AND FAR SERN MN...INDICATIVE OF
DEEPER CONVECTION /PER IR IMAGERY/ AND CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER PRECIP
RATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A NARROW CORRIDOR OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS FROM N-CNTRL IA NNEWD INTO NWRN WI...PREFERENTIALLY FAVORING
WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES ARE LOCATED.
ONLY A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT OF H8 FRONTOGENESIS IS FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING. GIVEN ONLY SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE-SCALE CNTRL U.S.
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...EXPECTING A
CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE ZONE OF ASCENT AND FAVORABLE SW-NE
ORIENTED FETCH OF TRAINING CONVECTION RESULTING IN MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES.
..SMITH.. 05/02/2013
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 43589304 46169143 46059096 45889097 43479232 43339285
43589304
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