MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 04 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 050446Z - 050545Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATE AN INCREASE TSTMS ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM APPROXIMATELY 50
   SW AGS TO 20 W AYS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
   VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITHIN
   THE ERN QUADRANT OF PARENT CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER-MS VALLEY.  MANUAL
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   INTERSECTING THE COLD FRONT JUST W OF AYS...AND EXTENDING EWD TO THE
   COAST.  
   
   RAP-DERIVED AUTOMATED ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY SIMILAR
   TO THAT OBSERVED BY THE 00Z JACKSONVILLE SOUNDING.  SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY LIKELY DIMINISHES FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH NWD EXTENT ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND
   DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.  AS SUCH...EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO
   PERSIST FROM NEAR THE COLD-STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION SWD ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT.  RELATIVELY STRONG ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
   WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY STRONG
   WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/05/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
   
   LAT...LON   30678233 31188275 31888270 32308233 32208168 31958126
               31238122 30688134 30418175 30678233