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| Mesoscale Discussion 593 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT SAT MAY 04 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050446Z - 050545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE AN INCREASE TSTMS ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM APPROXIMATELY 50
SW AGS TO 20 W AYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY A
VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITHIN
THE ERN QUADRANT OF PARENT CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER-MS VALLEY. MANUAL
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INTERSECTING THE COLD FRONT JUST W OF AYS...AND EXTENDING EWD TO THE
COAST.
RAP-DERIVED AUTOMATED ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY SIMILAR
TO THAT OBSERVED BY THE 00Z JACKSONVILLE SOUNDING. SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY LIKELY DIMINISHES FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH NWD EXTENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO
PERSIST FROM NEAR THE COLD-STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION SWD ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY STRONG ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 05/05/2013
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 30678233 31188275 31888270 32308233 32208168 31958126
31238122 30688134 30418175 30678233
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