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Mesoscale Discussion 593
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0593
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL AND FAR WESTERN
   KY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 158...

   VALID 102052Z - 102200Z

   CORRECTED FOR WATCH INFORMATION

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 158 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES
   ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SEVERE RISK
   POTENTIALLY CONTINUING/INCREASING INTO FAR EASTERN MO AND
   SOUTHERN/WESTERN IL AND FAR WESTERN KY.

   TORNADO WATCH 158 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z. MONITORING FOR INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WATCH ACROSS
   ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MO INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IL.

   DISCUSSION...A ROUGHLY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE
   CONTINUES TO STEADILY /35-40 KT/ SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL MO AT MID-AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
   CONVECTIVE LINE HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY INTENSE THIS
   AFTERNOON...IT REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED AND THERE IS
   CONCERN THAT SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH
   MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR
   INTO MUCH OF SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY. WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER
   IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES THE SQUALL LINE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
   REACHED THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL/FAR WESTERN KY
   INTO SOUTHERN IL...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE AMID UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE
   PRIMARY SCENARIO.

   ..GUYER.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   40149207 40149063 38218824 36878839 36548956 36879134
               37939149 40149207 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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