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Mesoscale Discussion 594
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164...

   VALID 110213Z - 110345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 164
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH A
   SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
   THE WATCH OVER THE PAST HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WW 164.  A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED
   PRIMARILY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED...UNDERCUT FROM OUTFLOWS RESULTING FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND RAP POINT FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE REGION IS SUSTAINING
   THIS ACTIVITY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE INSTANCES OF 1-1.5
   INCH HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
   LIMITS...ALTHOUGH THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
   TIME.

   CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  LATER INTO THE EVENING...THE INCREASE
   OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO
   OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   40189673 39839717 39649755 39589818 39629885 39709932
               40079960 40469948 40859921 41069882 41619839 41989785
               42049728 42039693 41919656 41559633 41009638 40589650
               40189673 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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