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Mesoscale Discussion 594
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 102205Z - 110000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR A POTENTIAL GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM
   INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...NON-SEVERE TSTMS ARE PREVALENT IN A TRAIL TO THE SW OF
   A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS CROSSING THE MID-MS VALLEY. THIS HAS
   ESTABLISHED A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR AND WITH CONTINUED
   LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FROM CNTRL TO NERN AR.
   A BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER INTO ERN TX
   /AS SAMPLED BY KSRX VWP DATA/ IS PROGGED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY E ACROSS
   AR THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RICHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THIS COULD
   SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY WITH TRANSIENT UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. OVERALL CLUSTER/MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD TEND TO
   INHIBIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RISK...BUT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE
   POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34849354 35589237 36279149 36579110 36609062 36339035
               35629031 34899089 34419135 34049198 34019275 34469336
               34489365 34629368 34849354 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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