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Mesoscale Discussion 594
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 130856Z - 131130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
   DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST. STORMS MAY FILL IN ACROSS
   THE REMAINDER OF SRN TX THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD
   FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST SWWD TO JUST W OF CRP FORMING ON THE
   OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT. THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF STRONG
   WINDS AROUND 40-50 MPH WITH LITTLE OR NO HAIL. ALTHOUGH AMPLE
   MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SHEAR
   PROFILES HAVE BEEN MARGINAL N OF CRP. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT DO
   INCREASE FARTHER S TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE...SUGGESTING A MORE
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 

   THE SWRN-MOST CELLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND/OR JUST AHEAD OF
   IT...MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE DUE TO THE
   STRONGER SHEAR. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS MORE CELLULAR
   ACTIVITY...PERHAPS...WITH SOME HAIL THREAT AS WELL.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27039949 27429860 27849785 28109746 28479678 28579645
               28439626 28189667 27599712 27059729 26289705 25889702
               25759732 25919806 26229886 26439914 26619925 27039949 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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