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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN SIERRA NEVADA AND KLAMATH MTNS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052147Z - 052345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MARGINAL NATURE OF THREAT
PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
SIERRA NEVADAS AND KLAMATH MTNS DURING THE LAST HOUR. OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY HAS REMAINED BELOW SVR LIMITS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE
STORM IN SIERRA AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 500 J
PER KG/ ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADING SWWD. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH STORMS LOSING STRENGTH AS THEY
MOVE WWD INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SHOULD HELP
SUSTAIN SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS IF THE OVERALL LIMITED BUOYANCY
CAN BE OVERCOME. AS SUCH...SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL NATURE OF
THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WW.
..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/05/2013
ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA...
LAT...LON 39832141 40842226 41092300 41452405 42072382 42042149
40982041 39401936 38381873 38131895 38251999 39002086
39832141
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