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Mesoscale Discussion 595
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN LOWER MI/WRN OH/MUCH OF INDIANA AND
   ADJACENT NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 131637Z - 131830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. 
   THOUGH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH STRONGER CELLS...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING
   IN A BAND FROM SRN LOWER MI SSWWD INTO SWRN INDIANA...ALONG THE
   SLOWLY ADVANCING SURFACE COLD FRONT.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/STORMS...AS A
   RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE WARM SECTOR PERMITS CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING
   OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/.

   THOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   INCREASES IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD
   REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO WIDESPREAD
   SEVERE POTENTIAL.  STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COOL
   SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHILE MID-LEVEL WIND VECTORS REMAIN ALIGNED
   ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT/CONVECTIVE BAND.  AS SUCH...SOMEWHAT
   WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH LITTLE EWD
   PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION OFF THE FRONT.  THUS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
   SEVERE RISK EXPECTED...WW WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNNECESSARY ACROSS THE
   REGION.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   43608369 43378234 40898334 38468511 37608646 37608778
               39628724 41508591 43298490 43608369 

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Page last modified: May 13, 2014
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