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Mesoscale Discussion 595
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN TEXAS SOUTHWARD
   INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

   VALID 110243Z - 110345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A
   BRIEF PERIOD BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 160.

   DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT HAD CONGEALED INTO LINES
   ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLIER HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY RECENTLY. 
   THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ONGOING
   CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ATOP RAPIDLY
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD POOLS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH TIME.

   ADDITIONAL NEAR-SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING NEAR SJT AND ALSO
   NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 40-45 KNOT DEEP SHEAR NEAR
   THE STORMS.  A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

   A SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND THE
   SCHEDULE EXPIRATION OF WW 160 /03Z/.  GIVEN THE LOCALIZED...YET
   PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...SOME AREAS OF THE WATCH MAY BE
   EXTENDED IN TIME AT THE DISCRETION OF LOCAL WFO/S IN THE AFFECTED
   REGION.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31030128 31500070 31999977 32629881 33179830 33949752
               34339689 34339639 34109567 33899521 33579512 32859551
               31599600 30979628 30369735 29949838 29669909 29659979
               29630081 29640116 29690138 29880152 30130163 30530162
               31030128 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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