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Mesoscale Discussion 595
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0595
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SE IA AND NW IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102217Z - 102345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL IL AND A BAND
   OF STORMS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
   EASTERN IA AND NW IL THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED STRONGER
   HEATING AND THE WARM FRONT HAS ONLY SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD
   THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER FROM FAR SE IA INTO
   W-CENTRAL IL...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST LAPSE RATES EXIST FOR
   SOME STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS. 0-6 KM SHEAR DROPS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH NORTHEASTWARD
   EXTENT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SOME AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   SHIFT NORTHEAST. AS STORM ENCOUNTER THE WARM FRONT...THERE IS SOME
   SUGGESTION BY THE DVN VWP AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SOME LOW
   LEVEL STORM ROTATION IS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 200 M2/S2 SRH VALUES
   NOTED. HOWEVER...LACK OF BETTER QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID 50S/ AND COOLING TEMPERATURES/INCREASING CINH WITH
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADIC POTENTIAL. AS
   SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED NONETHELESS.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   39659036 39999104 40509143 41319218 41759217 41999206
               42259141 42309045 42188964 41818922 41298899 41098896
               39778912 39508928 39659036 

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Page last modified: May 10, 2015
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