MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...S PLAINS OF NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 070028Z - 070200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST
   THROUGH ABOUT DUSK WITH A SUPERCELL CROSSING NM INTO THE S PLAINS OF
   NW TX.
   
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL OVER NRN ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM HAS SHOWN SIGNS
   OF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 30 MIN AS IT HAS TRACKED MORE TO
   THE SE. MODIFIED 00Z AMA RAOB SUGGESTS BUOYANCY IS QUITE
   LIMITED...GIVEN INFLOW SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
   HOWEVER...A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLYS WITH 40 KT AT 500 MB IN
   THE ABQ RAOB TO 30 KT IN THE JAYTON TX WIND PROFILER HAS CLEARLY
   SUPPORTED UPDRAFT ROTATION IN SPITE OF MEAGER BUOYANCY. 12Z WRF-NSSL
   SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAS APPEARED REASONABLY ACCURATE WITH THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SUPERCELL AND APPEARS LOGICAL IN ITS EVOLUTION
   OF SUGGESTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE MAY BE MAINTAINED UNTIL AROUND
   DUSK. EVENTUAL DEMISE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AT THAT
   TIME AS THE EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCIN BECOME
   REALIZED.
   
   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/07/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   34360317 34090174 33880133 33640122 33220130 32890151
               32840195 33070253 33350321 33690365 34110367 34360317