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Mesoscale Discussion 596
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0539 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...

   VALID 102239Z - 110015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND AND A BRIEF
   TORNADO SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY RELEGATED TO THE SRN PORTION OF WW 157
   ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW ELSEWHERE
   IN THE WATCH...BUT ISOLATED HAIL MAY FORM AS TSTMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
   ALONG THE FRONT.

   DISCUSSION...22Z OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM
   OSAGE TO COTTON COUNTIES WITH SEVERAL SHOWERS AND A TSTM ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY FROM MCCLAIN COUNTY N. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND
   WEAKENED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER TLX VWP DATA AND SWLY DEEP FLOW
   SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-PARALLEL TO THE NNE/SSW-ORIENTED FRONT. ALTHOUGH
   A LIMITED CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONGOING MCS OVER S-CNTRL/SERN OK WILL CURTAIL
   FURTHER ATTEMPTS AT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. MID-LEVEL DCVA IS
   CURRENTLY TEASING THE FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP
   ALONG IT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH PERHAPS A RISK FOR
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WITHIN THE WATCH SHOULD
   REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MCS DEVELOPING FROM N-CNTRL TX TO SERN OK.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36959628 36939579 36729565 35989612 35369658 34989685
               34489674 34699558 34699477 34509459 34199488 33929560
               33889694 33859735 33919765 34669771 35049763 36959628 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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