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Mesoscale Discussion 597
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0615 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 155...

   VALID 102315Z - 110045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH AN HP-SUPERCELL
   BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND WACO...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE SWRN PORTION OF WW 155 APPEARS
   UNLIKELY TO HAVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO
   02Z SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...CNTRL TX SUPERCELL CENTERED OVER HILL COUNTY HAS
   EVOLVED INTO A BROAD HP CLUSTER WITH UPSHEAR PRECIP SEEDING FROM
   WEAKER CONVECTION TO W OF KILLEEN. ALTHOUGH KGRK VWP DATA ONLY
   SAMPLED 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 20 KT...A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY A SPECIAL 21Z COLLEGE STATION RAOB AHEAD OF
   THIS SUPERCELL WILL SUPPORT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WITHIN A NARROW SWATH
   TO THE ENE THIS EVENING. 

   FARTHER NE...SCATTERED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION INTENSIFYING NEAR THE
   RED RIVER SHOULD POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS THEY CROSS A
   LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO SWRN AR.

   FARTHER SW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
   IS MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE CU FIELD HAS EFFECTIVELY
   FLATTENED IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR W OF THE HILL COUNTRY. TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY PRIOR TO 02Z WW EXPIRATION.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32939370 32749463 32049597 31469660 30519739 30129807
               30929856 31299831 31749756 32249730 32559765 33169801
               33929717 34119601 34159425 33949328 33589288 33279296
               33059325 32939370 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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