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Mesoscale Discussion 598
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/NRN AL/MIDDLE TN AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 141556Z - 141800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS SUGGESTS WW ISSUANCE WILL BECOME LIKELY THROUGH NOON.

   DISCUSSION...WV LOOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF-COAST REGION
   SHOWS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING ATTM...AHEAD OF A VORT MAX NOW
   CROSSING THE NERN TX/ERN OK VICINITY.  WHILE CLOUD COVER --
   ESPECIALLY INTO MS/AL -- IS LIMITING HEATING TO SOME
   DEGREE...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
   SUPPORT A CONTINUED DIURNAL INCREASE IN CAPE /ATTM INTO THE 1000 TO
   1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/. 

   WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AND
   AREA VWPS HINTING AT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FLOW MAGNITUDE ABOVE 900
   MB -- CONFIRMING A STRENGTHENING TREND IN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PER
   12Z MODEL FORECASTS -- THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH TIME.  AS THE
   OBSERVED/GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION /PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY/
   CONTINUES...SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A TORNADO OR TWO -- WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33218728 33138890 33648929 35248837 36748639 36768471
               35678508 33218728 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2014
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