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Mesoscale Discussion 598
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...SERN NEB...AND SW IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110702Z - 110900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE SOME SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE PERHAPS
   INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED AREAS OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
   ONGOING... AND DEVELOPING...ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS APPEARS LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS
   ENHANCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /40-50+ KT/ ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THAT IS LIKELY PEAKING IN STRENGTH.

   ALTHOUGH DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROBABLE THROUGH
   09-12Z...FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   CONSOLIDATION OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   KANSAS INTO ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. 
   IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ON THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF
   WARMER AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ADVECTING
   TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS MAY GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO
   SIZABLE CAPE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED
   BY 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS...NOW OVER OKLAHOMA/ ADVECT NORTHWARD.

   THROUGH DAYBREAK...MUCH OF THIS DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
   ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE BASED LAYER.  SHEAR WITHIN THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS PROBABLY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
   RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.  THIS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT SCATTERED OR SPARSE
   IN COVERAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY HINGE ON FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION
   AND UPSCALE GROWTH...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...BUT CURRENTLY SEEMS MORE
   PROBABLE TOWARD OR AFTER DAYBREAK.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38749924 39749869 40439666 40589492 39219352 37949442
               38399570 38559686 38419827 38749924 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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