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Mesoscale Discussion 599
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN PA/ERN WV/NWRN VA AND THE WRN MD
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 141748Z - 141945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK.  WW NOT
   ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED/ISOLATED NATURE OF RISK.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...NEAR AND W OF THE
   DAMMING/WEDGE FRONT BACKED UP TO THE E SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. 
   IN THIS AREA...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IN CONJUNCTION WITH ONGOING
   DIURNAL HEATING HAS YIELDED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000
   J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/...FUELING THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT.

   THIS AREA REMAINS ON THE FAR ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT...THUS LIKELY LIMITING OVERALL STORM INTENSITY/SEVERITY.  THAT
   BEING SAID...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
   COUPLE OF STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS -- WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS THE MAIN RISK.  WITH THE THREAT LIKELY TO
   REMAIN LOW-END AND ISOLATED...WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM...THOUGH RISK
   COULD INCREASE FROM THE W INTO PARTS OF THIS REGION LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OVERALL EWD PROGRESS OF
   THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   41607859 40837838 40127884 38947831 37897930 37818002
               38838074 40098006 41317949 41607859 

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Page last modified: May 14, 2014
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