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Mesoscale Discussion 599
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AREA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165...

   VALID 110740Z - 110915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
   REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
   POTENTIAL HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165
   COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 11Z.

   DISCUSSION...ALONG THE STALLED WESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
   APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...EAST THROUGH NORTH OF NASHVILLE...TOWARD THE
   BOWLING GREEN KY AREA.  MRMS MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGER STORMS
   MAY OCCASIONALLY STILL BE PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...BUT THERE APPEARS
   TO BE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND TO PEAK INTENSITIES.  INHIBITION FOR
   THE MORE MOIST PARCELS NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
   INCREASE...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUPPORTING LOW-LEVEL JET
   /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/ IS WEAKENING AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
   APPALACHIANS.  WHILE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT OUT
   OF THE QUESTION IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUING LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE
   DIMINISHED.

   ..KERR.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37168726 36708562 36218517 35738488 35518571 35898661
               36348767 37168726 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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