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Mesoscale Discussion 600
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN KS...SE NEB...SW IA...WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...

   VALID 111034Z - 111215Z

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL
   PERSIST BEYOND DAYBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY... SPREADING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND ST.
   JOSEPH MO AREAS.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS WITHIN AN
   EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT INCLUDES AT LEAST A BROAD LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THIS IS FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF
   ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION /ROUGHLY AROUND 700 MB/...ON THE NOSE OF A
   NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
   ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR.  LATEST RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
   MISSOURI RIVER NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. JOSEPH THROUGH 11-13Z.

   ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL WEAKENING THROUGH THIS
   PERIOD...SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW...EMANATING FROM A RESIDUAL WEDGE OF
   SEASONABLY MOIST AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND
   70F/ OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAY MAINTAIN
   VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITHIN THIS EVOLVING CLUSTER.
   AT THE SAME TIME...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF LOWER/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING TO THE
   SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

   IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHAT/IF ANY LONGER TERM IMPACT THE EVOLVING
   COLD POOL TO THE NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO WILL HAVE ON THE
   CONVECTION TO THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE EVOLVING DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL.  TO THIS POINT...STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE MOSTLY
   RELATED TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION ACCOMPANYING THE
   CONVECTION.  PROSPECTS FOR QUICK WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
   BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
   COLD POOL...ALSO APPEAR LIMITED.  HOWEVER...A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
   AND WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT
   LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...IF IT DOES NOT INCREASE.

   ..KERR.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   40309639 41019546 40919369 39999330 39239315 38199301
               37029358 37709466 38259517 38409605 38569663 40309639 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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