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Mesoscale Discussion 601
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0919 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL IA AND NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 110219Z - 110315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL IA INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL MO. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 1-3
   HOURS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL IA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MO. A NARROW WARM
   SECTOR WEDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT IT IS LIKELY THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE AS NOCTURNAL COOLING
   PROCESSES ENSUE. WEAK CONFLUENCE IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT IS MAINTAINING A FEED OF RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AIR INTO A
   BAND OF STORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OF DSM IN IA TO NORTHWEST OF CDJ IN
   MO. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE AND MAY
   AID IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THIS CONVECTION. MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION.
   HOWEVER...THE DMX AND DVN VWP/S CONTINUE TO SHOW
   LARGE...CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WHILE THIS MAY
   LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL ROTATION...CONTINUED DECOUPLING OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41359417 41769411 41859386 41809356 41509281 41089214
               40889190 40569190 40149217 39949250 39869354 39939431
               41359417 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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