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Mesoscale Discussion 601
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0601
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111620Z - 111715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN MO INTO CNTRL IL
   THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT MCS THAT EVOLVED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS HAS
   PROGRESSED INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH LARGER PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY
   DISSIPATING.  HOWEVER...LONE SEVERE TSTM HAS EVOLVED ALONG LEADING
   EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER NERN MO AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE
   HAIL.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS CONVECTION MAY NOT DIE OFF BUT
   RATHER SLOWLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD INTO
   IL.  16Z SFC OBS SUGGEST A WELL-DEFINED NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY
   EXTENDS FROM NEAR STL...SEWD INTO SRN IL.  WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS
   NWD-ADVANCING BOUNDARY COULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT A WEAK SWLY LLJ IS
   FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THIS BOUNDARY.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39599157 39668876 38938814 38198884 38749145 39599157 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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