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Mesoscale Discussion 602
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0957 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR TO NERN TX

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 161...

   VALID 110257Z - 110430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 161 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR A TORNADO WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   ESPECIALLY WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS FROM W-CNTRL AR TO NERN TX.
   OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF WW 161 AND LOCALLY EXTENDED WW 155
   MAY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW NEAR 04Z...BUT MORE LIKELY A
   REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...GREATEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO RISK IS EXPECTED WITHIN
   SEMI-DISCRETE WAA-DRIVEN STORMS FROM NERN TX INTO W-CNTRL AR. WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING AMIDST A 40-KT SLY LLJ AND MAINTAINING
   SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE MODE...ROTATING UPDRAFTS SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL TIGHTENING INTO
   SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

   OTHERWISE...FORWARD MOVEMENT OF A SUPERCELL CLUSTER CENTERED IN VAN
   ZANDT/HENDERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN AT ABOUT 20-30 KT WHICH SHOULD
   RESULT IN THIS CLUSTER BEING ALONG THE FWD/SHV CWA BORDER AT 04Z.
   UPSHEAR STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL...BUT THE BULK OF DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL
   SHOULD EVOLVE INTO VALID PORTIONS OF WW 161 BETWEEN 04-05Z.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   35499326 35389286 35069258 34299249 32799350 31859457
               31729519 31619550 31559595 31689639 31939655 32309597
               32699565 33349526 33919456 34269430 34619418 35089397
               35469367 35499326 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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