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Mesoscale Discussion 602
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NC/SC AND FAR NERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111812Z - 112015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR
   WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION. WW ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
   REMAINS NEBULOUS THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
   GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE MCD
   REGION. A MCV FROM CONVECTION YESTERDAY ACROSS KY IS APPROACHING THE
   DC METRO AREA AS OF 18Z...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD AWAY FROM THE
   CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...AN
   ILL-DEFINED/REMNANT FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM W-E ACROSS NRN NC INTO
   SERN VA PER RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   ERN TN EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WEAKENED...BUT ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS SERN TN AND THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF NRN GA AND WRN NC/SC. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   INDICATES THE CU FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF NC/SC TO THE S OF THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. WITH
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1250 J/KG.
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG...BUT NWLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT AROUND 500
   MB MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES...WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
   WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE
   MCD AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   FFC...

   LAT...LON   35218391 35838242 36368104 36497900 36467736 36177700
               35677717 34937835 34597978 34348132 34528300 34798411
               35218391 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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