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Mesoscale Discussion 603
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX / SRN HILL
   COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110731Z - 110900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG
   THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT AND POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF AN
   ISOLD LARGE-HAIL THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE TRAILING
   PORTION OF A STALLED PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL ZONE/DRYLINE DRAPED OVER
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/SRN HILL COUNTRY.  A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT IS
   LOCATED FARTHER N ARCING FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE NRN PART OF THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.  ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   MAINTAINING A FETCH OF RICH MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
   AROUND 70 DEG F.  THE 00Z DRT RAOB SHOWED MODERATE BUOYANCY ON THE
   SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP WLY FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
   CNTRL U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.  AS A RESULT...FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AND POTENTIALLY A
   LARGE-HAIL THREAT.  RECENT ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR SHOW A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD
   PROBABLY YIELD STRONG CONSIDERATION FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   ISSUANCE.  WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29830191 30300180 30650138 30749965 30569927 30309901
               29899922 29619984 29550154 29830191 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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