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Mesoscale Discussion 604
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

   VALID 142305Z - 150030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL
   CONTINUE ON A LIMITED BASIS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IF MODEST
   INTENSITY TRENDS PERSIST...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTM
   WATCH 153 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE A GRADUAL
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION /15-20 KT/ ACROSS MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL AS OF
   23Z. OWING TO A PRECEDING CLOUD CANOPY/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...THE
   OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS REMAINED QUITE MODEST SINCE
   LATE AFTERNOON INCLUDING A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF CLOUD-GROUND
   LIGHTNING. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS...THE ONLY POSSIBLE PERCEIVED FACTOR FOR AN
   UPSWING IN LINE ORGANIZATION/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS IS AN EXPECTED
   INCREASE IN 1-2 KM AGL SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. LATEST WSR-88D
   VWP DATA FROM NASHVILLE/OHX SHOWS 50 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AS MUCH
   AS 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. IF MODEST CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS
   CONTINUE AS EXPECTED...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 153 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.

   ..GUYER.. 05/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34468735 35538701 36638665 36288483 34518632 34468735 

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