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Mesoscale Discussion 604
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND E-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110755Z - 110930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY POSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A WEAK
   TORNADO THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER E-CNTRL AND ERN TX SHOW MID
   70S TEMPS AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR
   INCREASING WITH NWD EXTENT WILL SUPPORT MESOCYCLONE POTENTIAL.  THE
   RISK FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS CONFINED TO 2 CONFLUENCE
   ZONES PER RADAR MOSAIC DATA AND ARE SERVING AS INITIATION FOCI AS
   UPDRAFTS SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. 
   HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ROBUST/SUSTAINED SUPERCELL WOULD BE
   ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO.  88D VAD DATA SHOW A
   VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILE WHICH SEEMS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME
   ANAFRONTAL TENDENCY WITH THE SQUALL LINE.  THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
   SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES SEWD WITH A
   TENDENCY FOR THE GUST FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY DISPLACED
   AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.  ISOLD DMGG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH THE SQUALL LINE.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31239368 30389675 31069669 31779551 31859378 31629346
               31239368 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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