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Mesoscale Discussion 604
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111932Z - 112100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE ACROSS THE MCD AREA
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
   BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
   N-CNTRL TX...AIRMASS RECOVERY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MLCAPE VALUES TO
   INCREASE INTO THE 2000-3500 J/KG RANGE PER 19Z RAP MESOANALYSIS.
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE
   EXTENDING ABOUT 40 SE LUB TO 30 E MRF...AND ALONG A BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING EWD FROM THE DRYLINE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN N TX.  RECENT
   HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE
   MCD AREA COMBINED WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND
   SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
   POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF N/CNTRL TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32240125 33080098 33079972 33259882 33669793 33459695
               32379692 31369967 31880085 32240125 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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