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Mesoscale Discussion 605
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL TX EWD INTO SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...

   VALID 111204Z - 111300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A FAIRLY ISOLATED LARGE-HAIL RISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
   S-CNTRL TX THROUGH MID MORNING WHILE A SHORTER-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLD
   LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE EXISTS ACROSS SERN TX.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS/RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW AN
   EXTENSIVE QLCS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO SERN TX WITH RICH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS/ LOCATED TO THE E AND S
   OF THE ONGOING STORMS.  THE QLCS HAS LARGELY BECOME ORIENTED WSW-ENE
   WITH THE MEAN WIND LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LEADING GUST FRONT.  A
   REDUCED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR EMBRYONIC STORMS
   TO DEVELOP AND MATURE AHEAD OF THE LINE OVER SERN TX GIVEN THE
   DISSIPATION OF EARLIER WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE ZONES.  LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR SAMPLED BY 88D VAD DATA IS BECOMING MORE MARGINAL AND THIS
   TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS
   THERE IS ONLY A SHORT-TERM RISK FOR EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS YIELDING A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK AND
   LARGE HAIL.  FARTHER W OVER THE SRN HILL COUNTRY INTO SRN PORTIONS
   OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO POSE
   AN ISOLD THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE MODE AND A
   PRISTINE FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OFF THE MEXICAN
   PLATEAU.

   ..SMITH.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29840172 30219981 30899853 30579661 31059461 31099370
               30599373 29999459 29459713 29069960 29090074 29840172 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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