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Mesoscale Discussion 606
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN / WRN NC / WRN SC / ECNTRL GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 150414Z - 150545Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD FROM WRN NC SWD TO ECNTRL GA. ALTHOUGH WW ISSUANCE APPEARS
   UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...THE NEED FOR A
   WW CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ECNTRL GA IN
   A ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
   60S AND LOWER 70S F. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
   INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 45 TO 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS. AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD NWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   36188336 35578366 33468395 32028370 31388339 31218292
               31218234 31598212 32718214 33778216 35898210 36308272
               36188336 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2014
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