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Mesoscale Discussion 606
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NM...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...AND
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112016Z - 112215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT HAS INCREASED OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
   THIS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA...AND THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS VERY LIMITED
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED
   TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND MUCAPE
   RANGES FROM 100-300 J/KG PER 20Z RAP MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN A WELL
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50 KT
   OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY HAVE
   STRONG/GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36820438 38090448 38510440 38770407 38750349 38630307
               38370258 37090091 35870091 35290165 35230268 35580397
               36820438 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2016
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