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Mesoscale Discussion 606
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO...INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER
   MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 111648Z - 111915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE ISSUANCE OF A
   TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERN
   INDIANA CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION
   EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN-PLAINS DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES CYCLING -- HAVING
   WEAKENED IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING -- AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND WRN OHIO
   TO SRN LOWER MI. THIS ZONE ALIGNS WITH VIS-IMAGERY-IMPLIED...
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   ACROSS THE REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD FROM MORE WIDESPREAD DECAYED
   CONVECTION. AS BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AMIDST
   LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...OTHER CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY WITHIN A WARM SECTOR S OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT
   ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI.

   MLCAPE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIR IS PROJECTED TO PEAK AROUND
   1000-1500 J/KG...WHILE 30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS
   SMALL...FAST MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE
   IND VWP SAMPLES 45-55 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM-AGL LAYER...ENHANCING
   THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS BY CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WHILE
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE LIMITED IN GENERAL --
   EXCEPT INVOF THE MI WARM FRONT -- THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
   STORMS / LEWP INFLECTIONS. SUCH RISK WILL BE GREATEST NEAR BACKED
   SFC FLOW INVOF THE WARM FRONT.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   39238659 41358562 43638432 43418249 41828232 39908295
               38618453 38468601 39238659 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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