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Mesoscale Discussion 607
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151229Z - 151430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   MORNING...AND A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED BY 14-15Z.

   DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   LEADING SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CNTRL
   SC...NC...AND VA THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE CELLS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS
   OF WEAK ROTATION...BUT NONE HAVE BEEN LONG LIVED YET DUE TO WEAK
   FORCING.

   AHEAD OF THE LINE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD
   WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S F. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING INDICATED
   AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND NO INHIBITION....WHILE FARTHER N...THE
   RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL/TORNADO HODOGRAPH
   CONDITIONAL ON INSTABILITY. 

   THE SLOW UPPER TROUGH MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN MOIST SELY SURFACE
   WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS POCKETS OF HEATING OCCUR ALONG WITH SOME
   MOISTURE ADVECTION...THERE SHOULD BE A CORRESPONDING THREAT OF
   TORNADOES....BOTH WITH BROKEN CELLS WITHIN THE LEADING LINE...AND
   WITH NEW ACTIVITY THAT FORMS AHEAD. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY NOT FAVOR
   PARTICULARLY STRONG TORNADOES...SEVERAL TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   TODAY...MOST LIKELY FOCUSED IN A NARROW N-S ZONE FROM ERN SC INTO
   CNTRL NC AND VA.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   32837944 32548000 32508045 32788086 33388088 34448065
               35568061 36768070 37338034 37517976 37597924 37327831
               36717795 35857792 34247802 33807822 33607890 33127914
               32837944 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2014
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