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Mesoscale Discussion 607
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111730Z - 111930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...HEATING HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
   A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG AND
   DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S F. 

   LIGHTNING AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A RECENT INCREASE IN STORM
   INTENSITY FOCUSED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SWRN MS INTO S
   CNTRL LA. WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE
   OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY COMBINED WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND OR HAIL. AT
   THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A
   WATCH.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29839309 30319178 31119098 31879056 32118988 31968906
               31448867 30888834 30318833 29698846 28968906 28959071
               29379189 29839309 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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