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Mesoscale Discussion 608
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NY AND NRN PA INTO WRN VT/MA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111732Z - 112000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE REGION IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL EXIST A
   RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
   AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S S OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   DRAPED ACROSS NRN NY...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS BEING MINIMIZED.
   TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM SWRN NY ALONG SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE/ASCENT PLUMES FROM ANTECEDENT CONVECTION UPSTREAM...AND
   INVOF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE REGION...AMIDST AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH
   BUF...CXX...AND CCX VWPS SAMPLING AROUND 20-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL
   WLYS...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
   SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO SPREAD EWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY MODEST ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
   SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE ESPECIALLY WITHOUT STEEPER
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42217406 41797566 41487766 41717857 42547833 43737618
               44237398 43787255 42847268 42217406 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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