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Mesoscale Discussion 608
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE IL...FAR SRN IND...WRN AND CNTRL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112230Z - 120030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP
   SEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IS LOCATED ACROSS FAR SERN IL
   INTO SW IND AND SWD ACROSS WRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE
   ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NRN
   EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED
   BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
   ACROSS SW IND BUT MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP SWD INTO THE STRONGER
   INSTABILITY OVER WRN AND CNTRL KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
   WSR-88D VWP AT PADUCAH HAS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW
   LEVELS ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS
   TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...ON THE SERN EDGE OF THE MCS. ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37068663 37098601 37238488 37438450 37768448 38248518
               38298643 38168774 37798853 37268831 37068663 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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