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Mesoscale Discussion 608
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0215 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151915Z - 152015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A STRONG WET DOWNBURST OR BRIEF SPIN-UP IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN A VERY MOIST/WARM
   ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PW VALUES OVER 2
   INCHES RESIDE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000
   J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 25 KT EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR/ AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF
   THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCL
   HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BRIEF/WEAK
   SPIN-UPS AND/OR WET DOWNBURSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING OCCURS AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO
   MOVE OFFSHORE. THE BRIEF/UNORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY STRONGER STORMS
   WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29958139 29488091 28268033 26637991 25668006 25558035
               25688062 26868138 28048178 28718199 29488212 29968185
               29958139 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2014
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