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Mesoscale Discussion 609
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111753Z - 112030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
   ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WITH SFC TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S
   OWING TO AREAS OF STRONG INSOLATION ACROSS THE MID-OHIO
   VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING IN THE MCD AREA.
   DESPITE LACKING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...WEAKENING MLCINH IS SUPPORTING
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION EMANATING FROM DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL
   CIRCULATIONS AND BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS ON THE EDGE OF
   CIRRUS-STUNTED SFC-LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE W. CONVECTION WILL
   CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL/SWLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW FACILITATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. LVX
   AND JKL VWPS SAMPLE 30-50 KT OF FLOW AROUND 3 KM AGL THAT WILL HAVE
   THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT -- AIDED BY MODEST SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND RELATED
   SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37588651 39388305 39828220 40308168 39898106 38968125
               38078201 36948363 36768666 37588651 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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