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Mesoscale Discussion 609
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112353Z - 120230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL RISK WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...AS WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY DCVA
   EMERGING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AS IT SPREADS ACROSS NERN
   NM INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EWD/ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON THE SRN RIM OF SFC RIDGING IN
   A REGIME OF RECYCLED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50F...MODIFICATIONS TO RAP SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE 250-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITHIN A NARROW W-E CORRIDOR ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
   MID-LEVEL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS FEATURING SOME
   CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE
   HAIL. THE OVERALL NARROW WIDTH OF THE BUOYANCY CORRIDOR...AND THE
   LIMITED MOISTURE...ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO LIMIT SVR COVERAGE.
   REGARDLESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36090277 36110169 35750022 35210008 34920024 34790087
               34850172 35070260 35500297 36090277 

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