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Mesoscale Discussion 609
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0222 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NC...CENTRAL/ERN
   VA...CENTRAL MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157...

   VALID 151922Z - 152015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR
   TWO CONTINUES WITHIN THE WW AREA.

   DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED OCNL QLCS
   STRUCTURES...AND A TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION...EXTENDED FROM
   SHENANDOAH COUNTY VA SWD TO MECKLENBURG COUNTY ALONG THE VA/NC
   BORDER AT 1915Z. TO THE SOUTH...NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES
   MORE WIDESPREAD AND WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER TSTMS...ALTHOUGH OCNL
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SINCE 1730Z.

   OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION/TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD ERN U.S. TROUGH. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
   RATES...DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF MLCAPES OF 500 TO
   LOCALLY 1000 J/KG FROM CENTRAL MD SWD TO THE NC COAST.  IN THE
   PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...A CONTINUED RISK FOR EMBEDDED QLCS
   BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW
   157.

   ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   39707828 39697727 39067695 36587732 36517689 34927636
               34517662 34077756 33687811 33907863 34537931 34817955
               39727886 39707828 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2014
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