MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AND SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091952Z - 092045Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING CNTRL TX MCS AS IT MOVES INTO ERN AND
   SERN TX.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A CONFINED CORRIDOR OF DMGG
   WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM
   COMPLEX MOVING EWD AND IMPACTING THE CNTRL TX I-35 CORRIDOR.  THIS
   CONGLOMERATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS --PERHAPS ACCELERATING IN FORWARD MOTION-- AS
   IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM
   OVER ERN-SERN TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN LA.  
   
   THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS SSWLY 40-50 KT
   1-2 KM AGL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   UNDERNEATH A STOUT EML THAT WAS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z CLL SPECIAL RAOB
   FROM TEXAS A&M.  A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DMGG
   WIND THREAT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO MAINLY A DMGG WIND THREAT AS
   THE MCS FORWARD PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   31259579 31679535 31379362 30929313 30209315 29809367
               30229627 30659650 31259579