MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL/SERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 179...180...
   
   VALID 100301Z - 100400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 179...180...CONTINUES.
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG RETREATING
   WARM FRONT.  A NEW TORNADO WATCH /REPLACING WW/S 179 AND 180/ WILL
   BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 04Z.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW S OF MAF WITH
   ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD TO ABI..W OF
   GYI...TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR E-CNTRL OK.  THIS PRIMARY
   SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO NWRN OR N-CNTRL TX BY
   10/06Z...LIKELY RESULTING IN THE NWD MOVEMENT OF ATTENDANT WARM
   FRONT.  AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID/UPPER 60S...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INVOF WARM
   FRONT TO 1500-2000 J/KG FARTHER S IN THE WARM SECTOR.
   
   VWPS FROM ABI AND FTW INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE OF LLJ IN THE
   0.5 - 1.0 KM LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
   400-600 M2/S2 ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY.  THUS...EXPECT
   ONGOING...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS OVER N-CNTRL TX AND SERN OK TO
   CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  
   
   FARTHER UPSTREAM...THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
   ELEVATED N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS...NWRN
   TX INTO CNTRL OK.  WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY
   FORM INVOF RETREATING FRONT...AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND EVOLVING
   LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  SHOULD MORE DISCRETE...SURFACE-BASED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT OCCUR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ..MEAD.. 04/10/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
   
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