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Mesoscale Discussion 610
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK...FAR NE TX INTO CENTRAL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151956Z - 152100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND INCREASING
   IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVERSPREADS THE
   REGION...AND A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCES S/SEWD TOWARD SE OK/CENTRAL
   AR. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEAR
   -25 DEG C PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/ COUPLED WITH SBCAPE VALUES
   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED
   MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TEMPER GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL DESPITE STEEP
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES...BUT A STRONGER/SUB-SEVERE WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGEST CELLS.

   ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33509501 33979558 34319570 34579541 34939458 35539305
               35899219 35929182 35759149 35389139 34979148 34589164
               34119203 33679267 33309372 33289451 33509501 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2014
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