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Mesoscale Discussion 611
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...CNTRL/ERN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 152133Z - 152330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS
   INTO THE EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND
   ORGANIZATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION OVER THE NRN VA AND MD PIEDMONT WILL
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING NNEWD WITHIN THE MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM
   CONVEYOR OVER THE ERN STATES EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY.
   MOIST-NEUTRAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS
   SUGGEST THAT NORMALIZED CONVECTIVE ACCELERATIONS WILL BE LIMITED.
   HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80F AMIDST
   LOWER-60S DEWPOINTS...MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL BE MAINTAINED WELL IN
   ADVANCE OF AN EWD-MOVING FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER WRN PA. DEEP
   UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE CCX VWP...WITH 50-60-KT MID-LEVEL
   SLYS...MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED...SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WINDS. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SRM
   DATA FROM CCX WSR-88D ALSO INDICATE WEAK CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONES WITH
   CONVECTION EVOLVING IN S-CNTRL PA -- PERHAPS A MANIFESTATION OF THE
   25-30-KT OF 0-1-KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE VWP. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   GIVEN SOME TENDENCY FOR DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INCREASE AS
   THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX GLANCES THE
   AREA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION COULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT EVEN STRONGER BUOYANCY/UPDRAFTS...THE COVERAGE OF
   THE SVR RISK MAY BE LIMITED AND DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   DIABATIC COOLING OF THE SFC LAYER.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 05/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39727578 38727577 38377623 38507682 39297689 39747761
               40207799 41707790 41977683 41717611 41157582 39727578 

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Page last modified: May 15, 2014
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