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Mesoscale Discussion 611
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO...AND EASTERN
   INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 164...

   VALID 111858Z - 112000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 164 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF ERN INDIANA INTO WRN/CNTRL OHIO.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED
   BAND...JUST CROSSING INTO WRN OHIO AT PRESENT. PRESENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT THIS THIS ACTIVITY IS BECOMING SFC BASED...SIMILAR TO AN
   AREA OF LONGER-LIVED CONVECTION TO THE W ACROSS E-CNTRL INDIANA. ALL
   OF THIS ACTIVITY...WILL DEVELOP EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
   18Z RAOB AT WILMINGTON OHIO SAMPLES RELATIVELY NOTABLE SFC
   TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH A SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATE AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM
   OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION AND RELATED MIXING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
   ENHANCE THE RISK FOR INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS OWING TO SUB-CLOUD
   EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THE ILN VWP SAMPLES FLOW AT 3 KM AGL HAVING
   INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT...WITH RELATED CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
   FURTHER AUGMENTING DMGG-WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN FAST-MOVING...
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. WHILE THE
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AND STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY
   MITIGATE THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL...A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO
   RISK WILL EXIST...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LEWP INFLECTIONS/SUPERCELLS.
   THE SVR RISK WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE DAYTON AND TOLEDO AREAS
   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BEFORE ADVANCING TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO
   INCLUDING COLUMBUS AND VICINITY.

   ..COHEN.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   39758514 41288500 41638401 41418299 40878281 39928305
               39178451 39758514 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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