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Mesoscale Discussion 611
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN/WRN AR...CNTRL/ERN/SRN
   OK...N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 120111Z - 120345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
   SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND 02-04Z. LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS
   FORECAST TO SPREAD GENERALLY EWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BECOME REQUIRED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC OBS SUGGEST A FRONT LIES INVOF THE
   INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND EXTENDS NEWD INTO
   CNTRL MO. OUN AND FWD 00Z RAOBS SAMPLE A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   E OF THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
   BENEATH AN EML. BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER FARTHER NE INTO MO. 

   WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY DEEP ASCENT APPROACHING THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SFC BOUNDARY...AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY AROUND 02Z-04Z WHEN STRONGER ASCENT OVERTAKES THE
   BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
   INDICATE BOUNDARY-LAYER CU DEEPENING E OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO
   NWRN AR...AND DEEPER CONVECTION COULD ARISE IN THIS CORRIDOR.
   ALSO...EVOLVING CONVECTION IN N TX ADDRESSED IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
   610 COULD SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME...AS COLD POOLS EXPAND FROM ONGOING
   CONVECTION.

   MODESTLY LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER WILL
   SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WHERE
   LOCALIZED COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION ENSUES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING THE TIMING OF MORE ROBUST INCREASE IN SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL...THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING
   FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33599836 34019864 34629831 35299762 36499583 37429349
               37699212 37479149 36599151 35679337 33809605 33469712
               33599836 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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