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Mesoscale Discussion 612
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 111916Z - 112115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TX LATER TODAY. LOCALIZED HAIL AND WIND WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU INCREASING NEAR A
   SWD-ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR A HOUSTON TO SAN ANTONIO TO DEL
   RIO CORRIDOR. TO THE S...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXIST
   WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND MUCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG. AS OF 19Z...A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER MEXICO SW OF DEL RIO...AND W
   OF THE HOUSTON AREA. 

   WLY FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT UNDERCUTTING OF
   THE INITIAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH TIME...AS LARGER CLUSTERS OF
   STORMS FORM...THEY MAY EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE IN SWD DIRECTION WITH
   MORE OF A WIND THREAT. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPDRAFTS DUE TO MODESTLY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
   CORES.

   ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29829632 29589583 29159602 28849702 28449772 27669818
               27369858 27349917 27489960 28020014 28760067 29080080
               29360057 29829632 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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