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Mesoscale Discussion 613
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TN...WRN VA...FAR SRN
   WV...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NC...SC...NERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111924Z - 112200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A
   BROAD REGION FROM ERN TN AND WRN VA/FAR SRN WV TO PORTIONS OF
   COASTAL SRN NC AND COASTAL SC.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH MULTIPLE REGIMES:

   /1/ A COMPOSITE SEA-BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS
   PARTS OF SC AND SRN NC...
   /2/ TERRAIN-ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
   /3/ BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS RELATED TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS A
   CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD EDGING INTO MIDDLE TN.

   AIR THAT HAS NOT EXPERIENCED SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE PROCESSING THUS
   FAR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE MLCINH OWING TO
   STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   FEATURING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
   COLD POOLS LOCALLY AMALGAMATE -- ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL SC FROM LATER
   GENERATIONS OF SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR WILL
   LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   FFC...

   LAT...LON   37498060 35417841 34407822 33138022 33438161 34578400
               35708495 36668335 37498060 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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