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Mesoscale Discussion 614
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL AL THROUGH SCNTRL AND SERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181757Z - 182000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ECNTRL AL THROUGH
   CNTRL GA BY 19-20Z AND SPREAD SEWD. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
   POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
   FROM SRN SC WWD INTO CNTRL GA JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA...THEN FARTHER
   WEST THROUGH WCNTRL AL NEAR TUSCALOOSA. THE FRONT IS BEING
   REINFORCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS NORTH OF
   THE BOUNDARY AND CLEAR SKIES SOUTH WHERE MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
   AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WITH DEEPER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT EVIDENT ACROSS NRN AL SPREADING SEWD. INITIATION OF
   THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80. VISIBLE
   IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY AND JUST SOUTH
   OF THE FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL AL INTO WCNTRL GA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   WEAK...BUT MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
   SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELLS AND STORMS WITH MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 05/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33008580 33388547 33468349 33128188 32558122 31938140
               31938303 32478518 33008580 

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Page last modified: May 18, 2014
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