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Mesoscale Discussion 614
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111946Z - 112145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN
   LOWER MI. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A NARROW...SHALLOW
   CONVECTIVE BAND N OF GRAND RAPIDS...WHICH IS SPREADING NEWD. THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATED TO A LONGER-LIVED MCV THAT ORIGINATED WELL
   UPSTREAM...AND WILL CONTINUE BEING STEERED NEWD. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
   RESTRICTING BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY...THOUGH SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE INFLUX OF
   MODESTLY WARMER/MOISTURE AIR FROM THE S MAY SUPPORT A FEW UPDRAFTS.
   AND...GIVEN STRONG DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE GRR AND DTX VWPS --
   E.G. 40-60 KT BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- OFFERED BY STRONG
   MID-LEVEL FLOW...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED HYDRODYNAMIC PERTURBATION
   PRESSURE GRADIENTS MAY AMPLIFY UPDRAFTS AND YIELD A NON-ZERO RISK
   FOR A DMGG WIND GUST/SHORT-DURATION TORNADO. HOWEVER...STATIC
   STABILITY IN THE PBL COULD MITIGATE THIS RISK SUBSTANTIALLY.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44028507 44638438 44778346 44008331 43498407 43468497
               44028507 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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