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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT MON APR 27 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN LA...EXTREME SWRN MS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...
VALID 280406Z - 280530Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204
CONTINUES.
CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. QUASI-LINEAR
MCS...WITH APEX OF PRIMARY BOW ECHO ACROSS PORTIONS JEFF DAVIS/ALLEN
PARISHES AS OF 04Z...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
LA. INTERMITTENT DAMAGING WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
BRIEF/ISOLATED MESOCIRCULATIONS SPINNING UP WITHIN LEWP INFLECTIONS.
MODIFIED LCH RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG OVER SWRN AND W-CENTRAL LA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
BAND...DIMINISHING GRADUALLY WITH EWD EXTENT TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG
ACROSS SWRN MS. LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SLGT
INCREASE IN BUOYANCY OVER AREAS PRIMARILY S OF POE-BTR LINE...N AND
E OF WHICH AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
STABLE...WITH STRONGER DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND MORE SBCINH.
COMPLEX ALSO WILL MOVE EWD INTO ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...PARTLY RELATED TO WEAKENING OF MIDLEVEL WINDS WITH EWD
EXTENT AND PARTLY DUE TO CHANGES IN SHAPE/DEPTH OF BUOYANT LAYER IN
FCST SOUNDINGS. STILL...ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE PARCELS AT
AND NEAR SFC TO LFC WITH STG FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
COLD POOL. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STG GUSTS MAY EXTEND E
OF I-49 TO NEAR MS RIVER.
..EDWARDS.. 04/28/2009
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 29739375 30249326 30789330 31379350 31539283 31479192
31129113 29949107 29219113 29229128 29319138 29419123
29499129 29519152 29619157 29639166 29749164 29719187
29639189 29559172 29469180 29569205 29569218 29519230
29589270 29789322 29739375
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