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Mesoscale Discussion 614
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS...WRN N
   TX...SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 120313Z - 120445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
   REGION MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...AND THIS MAY WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING SUPERCELL TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/SEWD WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MODEST
   BUOYANCY. THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AHEAD OF
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING LONG
   HODOGRAPHS...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SVR HAIL RISK INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS. AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT RICHER LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF SWRN OK AND VICINITY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...
   ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY
   THE 00Z AMA RAOB. HOWEVER...GROWING NOCTURNAL MLCINH AND ONLY MODEST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN LIMITED SVR COVERAGE
   OVERALL...RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE NECESSITY OF A NEW
   WW.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35180155 35540046 35499961 35249891 34829853 34289857
               33789875 33849953 34350055 34740137 35180155 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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