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Mesoscale Discussion 615
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...WRN AND SRN IL...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...

   VALID 120428Z - 120600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL INTO
   FAR WRN KY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   BEYOND THE WATCH EXPIRATION AND A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED.
   ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER FAR
   SRN IL THAT HAS BEEN SUSTAINED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
   THIS BOWING LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS
   CONVECTION. AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD...A MAX IN LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WHICH IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR THE IL-KY STATELINE...WILL
   HELP TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
   MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG
   WITH AN ESEWD MOVEMENT AT 35 KT WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A
   POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER PARTS OF THE LINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD
   PERSIST AND A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38328871 37798997 37639079 37229090 36838957 36588755
               36568667 37038594 37578595 37948685 38328871 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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