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Mesoscale Discussion 615
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN INDIANA...CNTRL/WRN KY...NRN PARTS
   OF MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112003Z - 112230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE RISK
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF
   A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   RETURNS FROM NWRN TN TO WRN KY. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT
   ACCOMPANYING A LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE GRAZING
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR E OF A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. LIMITED
   INSOLATION THROUGH TRANSLUCENT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS RESIDUAL FROM
   EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SUPPORTED SUFFICIENT DIABATIC SFC-LAYER
   HEATING AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FOR 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   AND...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AROUND 40 KT OF
   0-6-KM BULK SHEAR PER THE LVX VWP... FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ENSUE.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36478748 38028699 38648612 38448529 37238567 36288655
               36478748 

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