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Mesoscale Discussion 616
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE OK AND NW AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...

   VALID 120446Z - 120645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO ERN OK
   AND NW AR OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   FROM SW MO INTO ERN AND SRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES
   AND SUBSTANTIAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
   STORMS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH A NEAR SFC INVERSION EXISTS
   IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER....A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED
   OUT WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34779755 34459772 34089752 34139650 34409445 35119358
               35769349 35949398 35789477 35079701 34779755 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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