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Mesoscale Discussion 616
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND...WRN SD...NERN
   WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158...

   VALID 182257Z - 190000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR WW 158. 
   ADDITIONALLY...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST AND
   SOUTHEAST DUE TO NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
   WATCH AND JUST EAST OF THE WW AREA.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS WAS LOCATED NEAR BILLINGS AT
   2255Z...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BIG HORN MTNS
   IN NERN WY. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS OWING TO 500 TO 1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEARS OF 55 TO 60 KTS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE. AN APPROACHING UPPER
   LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE
   DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
   JET WILL ENLARGE HODOGRAPHS AND LOWER LCLS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEFLY
   INCREASED TORNADO THREAT. WITH TIME COLD POOL GENERATION WILL LIKELY
   LEAD TO ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   ..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 05/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   45110842 45201036 46061052 47220949 48100831 48810803
               48870674 48850574 48770410 48480341 47660238 46610222
               45470276 44450316 43770303 43360295 43110411 43300481
               44380555 44970590 45110842 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2014
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