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Mesoscale Discussion 617
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0324 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OHIO...WRN PA...FAR WRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 112024Z - 112230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
   SVR-TSTM RISK FROM THE SW...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ONGOING
   CONVECTION ACROSS WRN/SRN OHIO MAY SUPPORT SOME EXTENSION OF THE SVR
   RISK NEWD TOWARD THE LAKESHORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CLE VWP
   SAMPLES AROUND 25-40 KT OF FLOW IN THE 2-3-KM-AGL LAYER...WHICH MAY
   ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS AMIDST A
   BACKGROUND...WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM CONVECTION
   IS LACKING ORGANIZATION...LIMITING OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR SVR TSTMS.
   ALSO...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONLY MODEST DEEP MOISTURE/LACKING ASCENT
   MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR RISK. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41538164 41778107 42048014 40828019 40418065 40898152
               41538164 

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