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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH SCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152...
VALID 100629Z - 100700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 152 WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY
BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 07Z. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. ANOTHER WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION BEGINS TO SUGGEST A REVERSAL
OF TRENDS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION EWD INTO SCNTRL
TX. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OUTSIDE OF WW 152 AND BELOW SEVERE
THRESHOLDS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
WITH RESPECT TO PARCELS ORIGINATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS
BECOME STRONGLY CAPPED. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ARE LIKELY
ELEVATED AND NOT INGESTING AIR FROM WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...RESULTING IN WEAKER EFFECTIVE BUOYANCY. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS
TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE HAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY
SUCH SEVERE EVENTS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO NECESSITATE
ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE.
..DIAL.. 05/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 28029991 29180054 30510019 30319841 28519835 27679873
28029991
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