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Mesoscale Discussion 617
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182326Z - 190100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
   GEORGIA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
   /HAIL TO 1 INCH AND WINDS TO 60 MPH/ BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS
   OF DAYTIME HEATING.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF AN EXTENSIVE
   CLOUD SHIELD WHERE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE RESULTED IN MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
   1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50
   KTS...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION MAY BRIEFLY SUPPORT HAIL AROUND
   1 INCH AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS NEARING 60 MPH. 

   AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
   EAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIO-TEMPORAL THREAT...A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   ..MARSH/EDWARDS.. 05/18/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33128470 33128357 32868255 32418148 31928111 31238131
               31118141 31378267 31628403 31998521 32428535 33128470 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2014
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