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Mesoscale Discussion 617
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...

   VALID 120712Z - 120845Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS NOW APPROACHING OR SPREADING ACROSS THE WICHITA
   FALLS TX/LAWTON OK FINALLY APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING
   WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   APPEAR TO BE OUTRUNNING SUPPORTING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION...WHICH GENERALLY REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE.  ALTHOUGH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARS
   TO EXTEND EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
   THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INTO AN AREA
   OF VEERED/WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW.  LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...COUPLED WITH INGESTION OF DRIER AIR WITHIN THE INFLOW /AS
   INDICATED BY LATEST RAPID REFRESH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...SUGGESTS
   RAPID WEAKENING TRENDS OF STORMS EVIDENT IN LATEST MRMS DATA WILL
   CONTINUE.

   ..KERR.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35029877 34739788 34229715 33529752 33759905 34399940
               35029877 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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