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Mesoscale Discussion 618
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN OK...W CNTRL THROUGH NE AR...AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SE MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...

   VALID 120748Z - 120915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE
   SPREADING EAST OF WATCH 172.  HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
   APPRECIABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
   FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS
   PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. 
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  
   HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM-RELATIVE WINDS
   ARE SUPPORTING INFLOW OF AIR STILL CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE
   CAPE.  THIS MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER FEW
   HOURS...WITH 20-30 KT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
   A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
   OZARK PLATEAU.

   ..KERR.. 05/12/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34819554 34979473 35039391 35599325 35859262 36559106
               36108950 35579109 34659242 34249399 34039494 33999555
               34149571 34489593 34819554 

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Page last modified: May 12, 2016
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