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Mesoscale Discussion 618
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN/WESTERN
   OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 164...

   VALID 112039Z - 112145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 164 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 164.

   DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL SVR RISK CONTINUES TRANSITIONING TOWARD
   DMGG WIND GUSTS. MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE
   AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE
   COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AREA NWD TO DETROIT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
   SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN OHIO...AND ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
   POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS WHERE ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE
   PROCESSING HAS NOT BEEN SUBSTANTIAL. THE WILMINGTON OHIO VWP SAMPLES
   35-45 KT OF FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING FAST-MOVING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ENHANCING THE
   DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. AREAS
   FARTHER W INTO CNTRL INDIANA ARE STILL E OF THE SYNOPTIC WIND
   SHIFT...AND SOME CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   THERE.

   ..COHEN.. 05/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

   LAT...LON   39048497 39248558 40318536 43498358 43838332 43548234
               42018294 41648209 40158243 39638372 39048497 

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Page last modified: May 11, 2015
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